Smartodds : Are the Pro Bettors betting on Games before they Start based around closing prices as smart as they think ?

Posted on: September 28th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

I had a short stint at Smartodds keying the chance creation in games and at 2.55pm on a Saturday the toilets were packed full of people on their phones having bets on games and I always wondered ( still wondering ) what they considered their perceived edge to be when having a bet at 2.55pm on a Saturday .

I can appreciate that a trading company can move prices in a  direction but at 2.55pm on Saturday any perceived value will have disappeared.

The 12 games below all produced the opening goal by the away team in the 0-20 minutes time band .

 

1. Boro V Spurs > price of over 2.5 goals  11/10 before the game started FT 1-2 

2. Swansea V Man City  1/2 FT  1-3

3. Hull V Arsenal  4/5 FT  1-4

4. Chelsea V Liverpool  4/6 FT  1-2

5. Swansea V Chelsea  1.75  FT 2-2 

6. Boro V Palace  13/8  Razz  FT 1-2 

7. Arsenal v Southampton  4/5 FT  2-1 

8. Man UTD V Man City  11/10  Razz FT  1-2

9. Watford V Arsenal  1.85 FT  1-3

10. Palace v Bournemouth  2.15 FT  1-1

11. Sunderland V Boro  11/8  Razz  FT 1-2

12. Southampton V Watford  2.05 FT  1-1 

 

In the Premier League since 08-09 in games where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes , and around 75% ( 1/3 ) ended over 2.5 goals 

Over 2.5 % 73% 69% 71% 69% 81% 74% 75% 76%

 

In the Premier League since 09-09 in games where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes and around 44% ( 13/10 ) ended over 3.5 goals 

Over3.5% 40% 41% 41% 42% 61% 55% 42% 46%

 

Liverpool early away goal 7/2 13/5 8/11 , over 3.5 at 6/5

Fri 16/09/16 Chelsea
1 – 2
Liverpool
0 – 1
17′ D. Lovren
0 – 2
36′ J. Henderson
Diego Costa 61′
1 – 2

 

before the game over 2.5 was offered at 4/6

 

Chelsea early away goal  16/11/2 2/11 , over 3.5 at 5/4 

Sun 11/09/16 Swansea City
2 – 2
Chelsea
0 – 1
18′ Diego Costa
G. Sigurðsson (PG) 59′
1 – 1
L. Fer 62′
2 – 1
2 – 2
81′ Diego Costa
before the game started over 2.5 goals was offered at  1.75

 

Southampton early away  2/1 12/5 11/8 , over 3.5 at 6/5 

Arsenal
2 – 1
Southampton
0 – 1
18′ P. Čech (OG)
L. Koscielny 29′
1 – 1
Santi Cazorla (PG) 90′
2 – 1

before the game started over 2.5 was offered at  4/5

 

Palace early away  4/1 11/4 4/6 , over 2.5 at 4/7 Razz

Middlesbrough
1 – 2
Crystal Palace
0 – 1
16′ C. Benteke
Daniel Ayala 38′
1 – 1
1 – 2
47′ W. Zaha

over 2.5 was offered at  13/8 before the game started

 

Man City early away goal 8/2 13/5 4/6 , over 2.5 at 1/2 Razz

Sat 10/09/16 Manchester United
1 – 2
Manchester City
0 – 1
15′ K. De Bruyne
0 – 2
36′ K. Iheanacho
Z. Ibrahimović 42′
1 – 2

before the game started over 2.5 was offered at  11/10

 

Bournemouth early away  7/2 13/5 4/5 , over 2.5 at 1/2 

Crystal Palace
1 – 1
AFC Bournemouth
0 – 1
11′ J. King
S. Dann 90′
1 – 1

before the game started over 2.5 was offered at  2.15

 

Arsenal early away  14/1 11/2 1/5 , over 3.5 at Evens 

Watford
1 – 3
Arsenal
0 – 1
9′ Santi Cazorla (PG)
0 – 2
40′ A. Sánchez
0 – 3
45′ M. Özil
R. Pereyra 57′
1 – 3

before the game started over 2.5 was offered at  1.85

 

Boro early away goal 5/1 13/5 8/13 , over 2.5 at 8/11Razz on 19 minutes 

Sunderland
1 – 2
Middlesbrough
0 – 1
13′ C. Stuani
0 – 2
45′ C. Stuani
P. van Aanholt 71′
1 – 2

before the game started over 2.5 was offered at  11/8

 

 

Full time summary

 

I have spotted a major flaw in the betting industry in play algorithm(s) re goals in early goal games which you can exploit

BUT do not take a blanket approach to the early goal and assume an early goal = loads of goals = you will be spanked

the betting industry in play algorithm to price goals in play

1. looks at the expected goal production before the game starts

2. looks at the time left in the game and the current score

is that enough ?

If for example the early goal in general accelerates goal production > you will find that the algorithm will not factor in the time of the opening goal

I have shown in a number of leagues 0-1 HT goal 0-20 V 0-1 HT goal 21-HT and a much higher goal production in 2nd half in early goal sample but at HT both samples will have almost identical prices re over 2.5 Thumbs Up