Sheffield Wednesday V Brighton Review Via Conceding Data and Game State ( Current Score) Analysis

Posted on: October 2nd, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

Sheffield Wednesday conceding the opening goal data at home we can see that different size samples will give very different data results

2-1 3-2 2-1 0-2 2-1 0-1 1-1 1-1 4-1 3-1 1-3

sample is 11 games and Wed lost only 3/11  ( before the game yesterday )

look at a bigger sample

2-1 3-2 2-1 0-2 2-1 0-1 1-1 1-1 4-1 3-1 1-3 1-1 1-2 1-1 1-2 0-1 2-1 0-2 0-3 0-1 1-3 3-3 1-4 0-1 0-3 1-2 0-1 2-1 1-2 1-1 0-1 2-2 1-2 1-1 3-2 0-2 0-1 2-2 0-2 0-2 0-2 0-1 1-2 1-3

Wednesday  lost 59%

do not make the mistake of jumping on short term trends 

The key point would be in terms of conceding data is how does the time of the opening goal effect expectation of > 1-1 or 0-2/2-0 or staying 1-0/0-1

 

At 0-1 on 26 minutes  Brighton were offered at 4/6 and the draw was offered at 13/5.

0-1 Half Time 

 

E1 1516 2016-04-23 Charlton Brighton 0-1 1-3
E1 1516 2016-04-11 Nottm Forest Brighton 0-1 1-2
E1 1516 2016-01-16 Blackburn Brighton 0-1 0-1
E1 1516 2015-08-18 Huddersfield Brighton 0-1 1-1
E1 1415 2015-03-21 Blackburn Brighton 0-1 0-1
E1 1415 2014-12-20 Wolves Brighton 0-1 1-1
E1 1415 2014-08-19 Leeds Brighton 0-1 0-2
E1 1314 2014-03-15 Bolton Brighton 0-1 0-2
E1 1314 2014-03-01 Millwall Brighton 0-1 0-1
E1 1314 2013-12-29 Blackpool Brighton 0-1 0-1
E1 1314 2013-11-02 Doncaster Brighton 0-1 1-3
E1 1213 2013-04-27 Leeds Brighton 0-1 1-2
E1 1213 2013-02-19 Cardiff Brighton 0-1 0-2
E1 1213 2012-09-22 Millwall Brighton 0-1 1-2
E1 1213 2012-09-01 Burnley Brighton 0-1 1-3
E1 1112 2012-03-03 Doncaster Brighton 0-1 1-1
E1 1112 2012-01-21 Peterboro Brighton 0-1 1-2
E1 1112 2011-11-29 Derby Brighton 0-1 0-1
E1 1112 2011-08-17 Cardiff Brighton 0-1 1-3
E1 1112 2011-08-13 Portsmouth Brighton 0-1 0-1

Brighton last 21 away games in the Championship when winning 1-0 at half time , Won 86% ( 1.16 )

 

Last 20 games in the Championship 0-1 HT goal  21-30 to FT 

1-2 0-1 1-1 0-2 0-2 1-2 0-2 1-2 1-3 1-1 0-3 2-2 0-1 0-2 0-1 1-1 0-1 1-1 2-2 2-1 

1-6-13 Away teams won  65%  ( 1.54)

16/12/15 Hull City
2 – 1
Reading
0 – 1
29′ N. Blackman
A. Hernández 62′
1 – 1
J. Livermore 90′
2 – 1

 

Summary 

If you looked at short term trends then there is  a possibility that you layed ( backed against)  Brighton when they opened the scoring which highlights the limitation of conceding date when it does not factor the time of the opening goal added to the game state ( current score ) as time decays in a game .