Real Madrid V Villarreal In Play betting Review Via the Effect of the 2nd Half Home Fightback in La Liga

Posted on: September 22nd, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

Real Madrid at home in La Liga when conceding the opening goal  in last 26 games

15-5-6 < Real Madrid lost 23% and at 0-1 the prices offered were 7/5 9/4 15/8 < so some expectation of Real Madrid fighting back.

When Ramos scored on 48 minutes > 1-1 pathway = 2nd half home fightback metric , the prices offered were 1/2 13/5 7/2.

The last  50 games in La Liga where the away team were winning 1-0 at half time > 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 time band, 70% ended over 2.5 goals and 14% ended over 3.5 goals .

The home teams won 34%, 36% ended a draw and the away teams won 30% < no home bias

http://www.sotdoc.co.uk/the-effect-of-0-1-half-time-in-la-liga-and-the-second-half-home-fightback-goal/

At 1-1 over 3.5 goals were offered at 4/6 and we can see from the above data that the price offered was much shorter then expectation of goal production  in this profile in La Liga  and as a point of interest in the Barca v Alaves game at 1-1 , over 3.5 was offered at 1/2 ( FT 1-2 )

If we look at 0-1 Half Time in La Liga added to the home fightback ( 1-1 ) with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 minute tome band we can see that there is no home bias so backing Real Madrid at 1/2 was not offering any value at all ( Barca were offered at 1-1 at 1/6)

 

footnote : you can find my in play analysis on the gooners guide forum for free.

 

The home teams won 34%, 36% ended a draw and the away teams won 30% < no home bias