Premier League V Bundesliga : The Impact of the Early Home Goal Metric and 1-1 Game State with 70 Minutes Elapsed

Posted on: October 10th, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark

last 30 games in the PL where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band and 1-1 game state with 70 minutes elapsed

10-13-7

67% ended over 2.5 goals > a MONSTER in play edge > 1/0.67 = 1/2

the betting industry on 70 in the Premier league at 1-1 will have less expectation of over 2.5 then they should

the reason for this high over 2.5 % is 2 fold

1. 1-0 Ht goal 0-10 > 1-1 in 46-70 time band and 1-1 FT is super rare > away fightback metric < PL > 46-70 time band > 1-1 < acts a catalyst for further goal(s) 2. early home goal and 1-1 HT premier league > you will certainly see lowered expectation of accuracy by the HOME team in the 2nd half as a result of the first half events BUT 1-1 FT will not be a common event in that profile

last 30 games in Bundesliga where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band and 1-1 game state with 70 minutes elapsed

50% over 2.5 goals = Evens

8-16-6

Full Time summary

What factors do the betting industry use in play to price the goals market as time decays in a game ?

If the in play betting industry algorithm does not factor the time of the opening goal added to the game state as time decays in an individual league then you should discover that you will be able to price a number of games in play at a much higher level then the betting industry.

Premier league in games where the home team open the scoring in 0-10 minutes time band and 1-1 with 70 MINUTES elapsed

Stoke City
1 – 1
Everton View events More info
P. Crouch 7′
1 – 0
1 – 1
39′ R. Shawcross (OG)

Swansea City
1 – 2
Liverpool View events More info
L. Fer 8′
1 – 0
1 – 1
54′ Roberto Firmino
1 – 2
84′ J. Milner (PG)

Everton
1 – 1
Tottenham Hotspur View events More info
R. Barkley 5′
1 – 0
1 – 1
59′ E. Lamela

West Ham United
3 – 2
Manchester United View events More info
D. Sakho 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
51′ A. Martial
1 – 2
72′ A. Martial
M. Antonio 76′
2 – 2
W. Reid 80′
3 – 2

Manchester United
1 – 1
Leicester City View events More info
A. Martial 8′
1 – 0
1 – 1
17′ W. Morgan

Sunderland
2 – 1
Manchester United View events More info
W. Khazri 3′
1 – 0
1 – 1
39′ A. Martial
David de Gea (OG) 82′
2 – 1

Chelsea
1 – 3
Liverpool View events More info
Ramires 4′
1 – 0
1 – 1
45′ Philippe Coutinho
1 – 2
74′ Philippe Coutinho
1 – 3
83′ C. Benteke

Chelsea
1 – 1
Liverpool View events More info
J. Terry 5′
1 – 0
1 – 1
44′ S. Gerrard

Tottenham Hotspur
2 – 1
Sunderland View events More info
J. O’Shea (OG) 3′
1 – 0
1 – 1
31′ S. Larsson
C. Eriksen 88′
2 – 1

West Ham United
1 – 1
West Bromwich … View events More info
D. Sakho 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
42′ S. Berahino

Stoke City
1 – 1
Manchester United View events More info
R. Shawcross 2′
1 – 0
1 – 1
26′ R. Falcao

Hull City
1 – 2
Tottenham Hotspur View events More info
J. Livermore 8′
1 – 0
1 – 1
61′ H. Kane
1 – 2
90′ C. Eriksen

Swansea City
1 – 2
West Bromwich … View events More info
R. Lamah 2′
1 – 0
1 – 1
52′ S. Sessègnon
1 – 2
85′ Y. Mulumbu

Aston Villa
1 – 1
Swansea City View events More info
G. Agbonlahor 7′
1 – 0
1 – 1
36′ R. Lamah

Stoke City
1 – 1
Southampton View events More info
A. Begović 1′
1 – 0
1 – 1
42′ J. Rodriguez

Sunderland
2 – 1
Newcastle United View events More info
S. Fletcher 5′
1 – 0
1 – 1
57′ M. Debuchy
F. Borini 84′
2 – 1

Crystal Palace
3 – 1
Sunderland View events More info
D. Gabbidon 9′
1 – 0
1 – 1
64′ S. Fletcher
D. Gayle (PG) 79′
2 – 1
S. O’Keefe 90′
3 – 1

Chelsea
2 – 1
Aston Villa View events More info
Luna (OG) 6′
1 – 0
1 – 1
45′ C. Benteke
B. Ivanović 73′
2 – 1

Chelsea
2 – 1
Everton View events More info
Mata 7′
1 – 0
1 – 1
14′ S. Naismith
Fernando Torres 76′
2 – 1

Stoke City
1 – 2
Tottenham Hotspur View events More info
S. N’Zonzi 3′
1 – 0
1 – 1
20′ C. Dempsey
1 – 2
83′ E. Adebayor

Arsenal
1 – 1
Manchester United View events More info
T. Walcott 2′
1 – 0
1 – 1
44′ R. van Persie (PG)

Arsenal
2 – 1
Aston Villa View events More info
Santi Cazorla 6′
1 – 0
1 – 1
68′ A. Weimann
Santi Cazorla 85′
2 – 1

Tottenham Hotspur
2 – 1
Newcastle United View events More info
G. Bale 5′
1 – 0
1 – 1
24′ Y. Gouffran
G. Bale 78′
2 – 1

Reading
2 – 1
Sunderland View events More info
J. Kébé 7′
1 – 0
1 – 1
29′ C. Gardner (PG)
J. Kébé 85′
2 – 1

Swansea City
2 – 2
Aston Villa View events More info
W. Routledge 9′
1 – 0
1 – 1
44′ A. Weimann
1 – 2
84′ C. Benteke (PG)
D. Graham 90′
2 – 2

Everton
1 – 2
Chelsea View events More info
S. Pienaar 2′
1 – 0
1 – 1
42′ F. Lampard
1 – 2
72′ F. Lampard

Fulham
2 – 2
Everton View events More info
T. Howard (OG) 7′
1 – 0
1 – 1
55′ M. Fellaini
1 – 2
72′ M. Fellaini
S. Sidwell 90′
2 – 2

Queens Park Ra…
1 – 1
Everton View events More info
J. Hoilett 2′
1 – 0
1 – 1
33′ Júlio César (OG)

Southampton
2 – 2
Fulham View events More info
José Fonte 4′
1 – 0
1 – 1
70′ J. Hooiveld (OG)
1 – 2
88′ K. Richardson
José Fonte 90′
2 – 2

Fulham
1 – 2
Manchester City View events More info
M. Petrić (PG) 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
44′ S. Agüero
1 – 2
87′ E. Džeko

last 30 games in the Bundesliga where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band and 1-1 game state with 70 minutes elapsed >

Hoffenheim
1 – 1
Hertha BSC View events More info
S. Wagner 6′
1 – 0
1 – 1
55′ A. Esswein

Bayern München
1 – 1
Schalke 04 View events More info
R. Lewandowski 9′
1 – 0
1 – 1
13′ Naldo

Freiburg
1 – 2
Bayern München View events More info
J. Haberer 4′
1 – 0
1 – 1
35′ R. Lewandowski
1 – 2
90′ R. Lewandowski

Hamburger SV
1 – 1
Ingolstadt View events More info
J. Drmic 7′
1 – 0
1 – 1
61′ L. Hinterseer

Köln
1 – 1
Ingolstadt View events More info
A. Modeste 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
21′ M. Matip

Hoffenheim
1 – 2
Bayern München View events More info
K. Volland 1′
1 – 0
1 – 1
41′ T. Müller
1 – 2
90′ R. Lewandowski

Hertha BSC
1 – 1
Werder Bremen View events More info
V. Stocker 6′
1 – 0
1 – 1
26′ A. Ujah

Paderborn
1 – 2
Stuttgart View events More info
M. Vucinovic 4′
1 – 0
1 – 1
36′ D. Didavi
1 – 2
72′ D. Ginczek

Augsburg
2 – 1
Stuttgart View events More info
T. Werner 7′
1 – 0
1 – 1
22′ D. Ginczek
R. Bobadilla 73′
2 – 1

Mainz 05
1 – 1
Wolfsburg View events More info
N. Bungert 7′
1 – 0
1 – 1
61′ Luiz Gustavo

Wolfsburg
2 – 1
Hertha BSC View events More info
B. Dost 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
30′ J. Schieber
B. Dost 74′
2 – 1

Borussia Dortmund
2 – 2
Wolfsburg View events More info
P. Aubameyang 8′
1 – 0
1 – 1
29′ K. De Bruyne
C. Immobile 76′
2 – 1
2 – 2
85′ Naldo

Hannover 96
2 – 1
Hamburger SV View events More info
L. Stindl 9′
1 – 0
1 – 1
48′ H. Çalhanoğlu
D. Ya Konan 86′
2 – 1

Hamburger SV
2 – 1
Bayer Leverkusen View events More info
H. Çalhanoğlu 4′
1 – 0
1 – 1
58′ J. Brandt
H. Westermann 82′
2 – 1

Borussia M’gla…
1 – 2
Augsburg View events More info
Raffael 5′
1 – 0
1 – 1
35′ Halil Altıntop
1 – 2
81′ T. Werner

Schalke 04
2 – 1
Wolfsburg View events More info
Felipe Santana 9′
1 – 0
1 – 1
65′ M. Arnold
K. Boateng 81′
2 – 1

Stuttgart
1 – 1
Nürnberg View events More info
V. Ibišević (PG) 3′
1 – 0
1 – 1
6′ J. Drmic

Stuttgart
1 – 1
Werder Bremen View events More info
M. Harnik 6′
1 – 0
1 – 1
37′ N. Petersen

Freiburg
1 – 1
Hertha BSC View events More info
A. Mehmedi 6′
1 – 0
1 – 1
38′ P. Skjelbred

Greuther Fürth
1 – 2
Freiburg View events More info
M. Zimmermann 3′
1 – 0
1 – 1
69′ J. Schmid
1 – 2
78′ M. Kruse

Mainz 05
1 – 1
Werder Bremen View events More info
Á. Szalai 1′
1 – 0
1 – 1
69′ A. Hunt

Fortuna Düsseldorf
1 – 1
Mainz 05 View events More info
B. Svensson (OG) 6′
1 – 0
1 – 1
41′ I. Klasnić

Mainz 05
1 – 1
Wolfsburg View events More info
N. Zimling 5′
1 – 0
1 – 1
15′ Naldo

Mainz 05
2 – 1
Hannover 96 View events More info
N. Müller 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
28′ C. Schulz
Á. Szalai 89′
2 – 1

Augsburg
1 – 1
Freiburg View events More info
T. Werner 9′
1 – 0
1 – 1
29′ J. Schmid

Borussia M’gla…
1 – 2
Stuttgart View events More info
M. Stranzl 7′
1 – 0
1 – 1
8′ M. Harnik
1 – 2
72′ R. Brouwers (OG)

Fortuna Düsseldorf
1 – 1
Hoffenheim View events More info
R. Kruse 4′
1 – 0
1 – 1
39′ Joselu

Werder Bremen
2 – 1
Mainz 05 View events More info
A. Hunt 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
64′ Á. Szalai
A. Hunt 85′
2 – 1

Eintracht Fran…
1 – 1
Greuther Fürth View events More info
A. Meier 1′
1 – 0
1 – 1
53′ Z. Stieber

Stuttgart
2 – 1
Eintracht Fran… View events More info
C. Gentner 6′
1 – 0
1 – 1
67′ A. Meier
V. Ibišević 84′
2 – 1