Premier League Preview Via Survival Analysis 18th September 2016 : Looking at the Effect of Scoring / Conceding the Opening Goal

Posted on: September 18th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

Watford
12 : 00
Manchester United

Man UTD away in the PL when conceding the opening goal

5-9-16 UTD lost  53% 

Watford at home in the Pl when conceding the opening goal

1-3 2-2 3-2 1-1  1-2 0-1  1-2 1-2 0-3 0-1

In the table below I have added all the games since 2003-2004 where Manchester United conceded the opening goal away in the league in the 0-10 minutes time band , 87% ended over 2.5 goals and 48% ended over 3.5 goals.

Manchester United won 43.5%, 17.4% ended a draw and they lost 39.1%

Both teams scored in 83%

http://www.sotdoc.co.uk/manche…and-since-2003-2004/

Away Team Total Games W D L BTTS O 1.5 O 2.5 O 3.5 FH O 1.5

Man UTD 36 69 19 11 61 86 69 33 58

Man UTD last 36 away games in the Pl when opening the scoring 0-20

25-7-4 <> over 2.5 69%

 

Crystal Palace
14 : 15
Stoke City

What you should be looking at re Palace > is how well do they fightback when they concede the opening goal ? > reason why > at Newcastle under Pardew < they had the most chronic conceding the opening goal data which I discussed on sotdoc.co.uk at the time  Big Grin

Palace at home in the PL when conceding the opening goal

4-4-22 lost  73% 

Stoke away in the PL when conceding the opening goal

2-9-19

Stoke lost 63%

In the table below I have added the games since 2013-2014 in the Premier League where Crystal Palace conceded the opening goal at home in the 0-20 minutes time band and 64% ended over 2.5 goals

Palace won 14%, 14% ended a draw and they lost 72%

57% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes

http://www.sotdoc.co.uk/crysta…tes-since-2013-2014/

Away Team Total Games W D L BTTS O 1.5 O 2.5 O 3.5 FH O 1.5 FH O 2.5

Stoke 19 47 37 16 79 84 58 37 53 21

Stoke last 19 away in the Pl when opening the scoring 0-20

Won 47%, 58% over 2.5 goals , 37% over 3.5 goals

In the table below I have added all the games since 2008-2009 where Stoke conceded the opening goal away in the Premier league in the 0-10 minutes time band , 79% ended over 2.5 goals and 68% ended over 3.5 goals

Stoke won 5%, 21% ended a draw and they lost 74%

Both teams scored in 53%

http://www.sotdoc.co.uk/stoke-…and-since-2008-2009/

 

Southampton
14 : 15
Swansea City

Southampton last 30 at home in the Pl when conceding the opening goal

2-11-17

Southampton lost 57%

Southampton since 2003-204 at home in the Premier League have conceded the opening goal in the 0-20 time band in 20 games, 70% ended over 2.5 goals and 35% ended over 3.5 goals

Both team scored in 70% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 60%.

In the table below Southampton won 15%, 30% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 55%

http://www.sotdoc.co.uk/southa…0-minutes-time-band/

Home Team Total Games W% D% L% BTTS O 1.5 O 2.5 O 3.5 FH O 1.5 FH O 2.5

Southampton 10 80 20 0 60 100 80 70 70 30

Southampton last 10 at home in the PL when opening the scoring 0-10

8-2-0

70% over 3.5 goals

Swansea last 30 away in the Pl when conceding the opening goal

4-5-21 Swansea lost 70%

Away Team Total Games W D L BTTS O 1.5 O 2.5 O 3.5 FH O 1.5 FH O 2.5

Swansea 14 50 21 29 71 93 64 36 50 7

Swansea last 14 away in the PL when opening the scoring 0-20 , 64% ended over 2.5 goals

 

Tottenham Hotspur
16 : 30
Sunderland

Spurs last 30 home games in the PL when conceding the opening goal

11-4-15 Spurs lost  50%

Spurs since 2003-2004 at home in the Premier League have conceded the opening goal in the 0-20 time band in 36 games, 86% ended over 2.5 goals and 47% ended over 3.5 goals

Both team scored in 83% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 67%.

In the table below Spurs won 36%, 17% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 47%

http://www.sotdoc.co.uk/spurs-…0-minutes-time-band/

Home Team Total Games W% D% L% BTTS O 1.5 O 2.5 O 3.5 FH O 1.5 FH O 2.5

Spurs 20 85 10 5 65 95 85 50 70 25

Spurs last 20 at home in the PL when opening the scoring 0-10

17-2-1

85% over 2.5 goals

Sunderland last 30 away games in the Pl when conceding the opening goal

1-5-24 Sunderland lost 80%

In the table below I have added all the games since 2005-2006 where Sunderland conceded the opening goal away in the Premier league in the 0-10 minutes time band , 74% ended over 2.5 goals and 45% ended over 3.5 goals

Sunderland won 3%, 13% ended a draw and they lost 84%

Both teams scored in 58%

http://www.sotdoc.co.uk/sunder…d-since-2005-2006-2/

Away Team Total Games W D L BTTS O 1.5 O 2.5 O 3.5 FH O 1.5 FH O 2.5

Sunderland 22 36 36 28 82 91 68 45 55 14

Sunderland last 22 away in the PL when opening the scoring 0-20 and won only 36%  Eek