Premier League Game State Analysis 0-1 at 20 minutes Via @PETENORDSTED

Posted on: March 2nd, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark

Welcome to my first post in a series where I will be looking at various game state scenarios in various leagues. Today I am talking a look at the results in the Premier League where the away side take the lead and the score is 0-1 on 20 minutes.

Now here I am suggesting that a goal scored by the away side in the first 20 minutes is an early and in future posts we will look at various scenarios.

Here I have looked at matches dating back to the 2011/12 season and I have only looked at teams that are currently in the Premier League and does not include those teams such as Newcastle United who although where in the Premier League between 2011/12 and 2015/16 were relegated last season.

On looking at the data then Chelsea are certainly the comeback kings averaging 2.11 pts per game when losing 0-1 after 20 minutes.

Arsenal are the only side to have scored in every game when losing 0-1 at home after 20 minutes, and I believe this record goes back until 2004. However an honorouble mention should go to West Ham who have scored in 14 of their 16 matches in this scenario.

When looking outside the Top 7 teams there are some teams that have shown no real fightback.

Crystal Palace being the worst offenders, who have lost 12 of their 14 matches. These are followed by Southampton who have lost 9 of their 13, Swansea who have lost 11 of 18 & Sunderland who have lost 14 of 24.

Also of note when West Brom have conceded the opening goal and are 0-1 after 20 minutes they have conceded the next goal in 12 of 16 matches.

If we take the sides outside the Top 7 then we have 140 matches where the home side only won 13 (9.28%) There were 33 Draws (23.57) and the away side won 94 (67.14%)

Interestingly the early away goal seems to reduce the prospect of a draw and when we look at the top 6 sides with a fightback record averaging 1 point and over per game. We can see that in the 52 matches only 8 (15.38%) finished all square and when considering that the home side scored the equaliser in 30 of these matches, then laying the draw at this stage could be a profitable angle.

Game State Analysis Table 0-1 on 20 Minutes

SN = Scored Next

CN = Conceded Next

NG = No Further Goals

BS = Both Teams Scored

Team Matches W D L PPG SN CN NG BS O2.5 O3.5 HT O1.5
Chelsea 9 6 1 2 2.11 7 2 0 8 8 4 6
Arsenal 8 4 3 1 1.88 6 2 0 8 7 5 5
Spurs 15 7 0 8 1.4 8 5 2 11 13 7 7
Man Utd 9 3 2 4 1.22 5 4 0 8 8 6 6
Bournemouth 4 1 1 2 1 1 3 0 4 3 3 2
Liverpool 7 2 1 4 1 3 2 2 4 4 1 2
West Ham 16 3 6 7 0.94 10 6 0 14 12 11 9
Man City 7 2 0 5 0.86 2 4 1 6 6 4 4
Hull 8 2 0 6 0.75 2 4 2 4 4 3 2
Everton 13 2 3 8 0.69 7 2 4 7 7 4 8
Leicester 6 0 4 2 0.67 5 1 0 5 5 3 4
Stoke 11 2 1 8 0.64 4 7 0 7 8 6 7
Watford 5 1 0 4 0.6 3 2 0 5 5 2 3
Sunderland 24 2 8 14 0.58 10 9 5 17 13 9 11
Swansea 18 1 6 11 0.5 8 8 2 14 12 9 11
Burnley 2 0 1 1 0.5 1 0 1 1 0 0 1
Soton 13 1 3 9 0.46 6 6 1 8 7 2 5
WBA 16 0 5 11 0.31 4 12 0 10 10 9 11
C Palace 14 0 2 12 0.14 4 8 2 8 8 3 5
Middlesboro 3 0 0 3 0 2 1 0 3 3 1 3
Total 208 39 47 122 98 88 22 152 143 92 112