Premier League 2016-2017 Relegation Prediction Via the Shot Conceding Metric

Posted on: January 31st, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark

Posted on: December 5th, 2016

http://www.sotdoc.co.uk/premier-league-2015-2016-relegation-prediction-via-the-shot-conceding-metric/

In the table below I have added the teams that were in the bottom 3 re the conceding shot metric in the Premier League ( bottom 4 2014-2015) to show that there is some correlation between conceding shots and being relegated which appears to be a logical conclusion.

What is of further interest is that teams that have been in the bottom 3 in a season with regard to shots conceded and have not gone down have found that they have in general been relegated in subsequent seasons.

Sundererland and Crystal Palace in the table below are the only 2 teams to have not been relegated in that time period .

In terms of the bottom three this season re shots conceded <> Burnley , Sunderland and Hull

To be relegated

Hull 4/11, Burnley 8/11, Sunderland 5/6 , Swansea 10/11 , Boro 4/1, West Ham 6/1 , Palace 7/1

Summary

Crystal Palace at 7/1 fit the profile of a relegated team in terms of the shot conceding metric with Hull, and Burnley likely to join them .

2008-2009 Position
Bolton 13th
West Ham 9th
Boro Relegated
2009-2010 Position
Hull Relegated
Burnley Relegated
Birmingham 9th
2010-2011 Position
Blackpool Relegated
West Ham Relegated
Birmingham Relegated
2011-2012 Position
Wolves Relegated
Bolton Relegated
Blackburn Relegated
2012-2013 Position
Sunderland 17th
Fulham 12th
Reading Relegated
2013-2014 Position
Fulham Relegated
West Ham 13th
Cardiff Relegated
2014-2015 Position
West Ham 12th
Burnley Relegated
QPR Relegated
Sunderland 16th
2015-2016
Newcastle Relegated
Palace 15th
Sunderland 17th

Premier League – Relegation Betting Odds as at 31st January 2017

Sunderland 1/5

Hull 1/4

Swansea 5/4 > do not fit the profile of a relegated team >

Crystal Palace 13/8

Boro 11/4

Burnley 8/1