No better moment for a goal than just before half-time in the Premier League ?

Posted on: September 29th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

“06-06-2016) Ghent University scientists contradict what is generally assumed: if a home team scores just before half-time, then it often scores less after half-time and ends up, averagely speaking, with a lower goal difference.

The football myth doesn’t survive the confrontation with the data. For a given score at half-time, a goal just before half-time does not have any statistically significant effect on the chances of winning.” 

 

http://www.ugent.be/en/news-events/news/no-better-moment-for-a-goal-than-just-before-half-time-a-football-myth-debunked

Sotdoc response > it does survive the ” confrontation ” with the data and is in line with  game state analysis which looks at the effect of the current score as time decays in a game and in the Premier League 1-0 half time game state to the home team = lowered expectation of the away team fighting back with low expectation of an away win .

The ” confrontation ” data 

In the table below I have added all the games in the Premier League since 14-15 where the home team opened the scoring 40-HT and the home teams won 78.6% 

Since 2008-2009 in the Premier League in games where the home team were winning 1-0 at half time and 75% ended a home win.

In the table below in games where the home team opened the scoring on 45 minutes > the home teams won 87.5%

Goal Production

In the PL in 2014-2015 the average home goal production was 1.47 , and in 2015-2016 , 1.49 and this season 1.58 and if we look at the table below the home teams averaged 2.14

 

Conclusion 

The ” academics ” are going to football data seminars and a few are getting up onto a platform to regurgitate research they read circa 1998 +, and it never occurred to any of the academics ( sorry one academic has noted that the draw is as a result of low goal production and not teams fighting back ) to question what they have been advised from the platforms .Big Grin

 

T HT FT
Leicester Burnley 45 1 0 3 0
Hull Leicester 45 1 0 2 1
Man UTD Bourne 43 1 0 3 0
South. Palace 43 1 0 4 1
Arsenal Palace 45 1 0 1 1
Newcastle Swansea 40 1 0 3 0
Norwich Newcastle 45 1 0 3 2
South. Chelsea 42 1 0 1 2
Villa Norwich 45 1 0 2 0
Leicester Stoke 42 1 0 3 0
Sunderland Newcastle 45 1 0 3 0
WBA Everton 41 1 0 2 3
Newcastle Chelsea 42 1 0 2 2
Man UTD Sunderland 45 1 0 3 0
South. Norwich 45 1 0 3 0
Chelsea Palace 45 1 0 1 0
Leicester Chelsea 45 1 0 1 3
Sunderland Newcastle 45 1 0 1 0
Man UTD Villa 43 1 0 3 1
Arsenal WHU 45 1 0 3 0
Man City Leicester 45 1 0 2 0
Chelsea Newcastle 43 1 0 2 0
Leicester Villa 45 1 0 1 0
Spurs Southampton 40 1 0 1 0
Liverpool WBA 45 1 0 2 1
QPR Sunderland 45 1 0 1 0
Man City Liverpool 41 1 0 3 1
Hull Stoke 42 1 0 1 1