No better moment for a goal than just before half-time in the Premier League ?
“06-06-2016) Ghent University scientists contradict what is generally assumed: if a home team scores just before half-time, then it often scores less after half-time and ends up, averagely speaking, with a lower goal difference.
The football myth doesn’t survive the confrontation with the data. For a given score at half-time, a goal just before half-time does not have any statistically significant effect on the chances of winning.”
Sotdoc response > it does survive the ” confrontation ” with the data and is in line with game state analysis which looks at the effect of the current score as time decays in a game and in the Premier League 1-0 half time game state to the home team = lowered expectation of the away team fighting back with low expectation of an away win .
The “ confrontation ” data
In the table below I have added all the games in the Premier League since 14-15 where the home team opened the scoring 40-HT and the home teams won 79%
Since 2008-2009 in the Premier League in games where the home team were winning 1-0 at half time and 75% ended a home win.
In the table below in games where the home team opened the scoring on 45 minutes > the home teams won 87.5%
In the PL in 2014-2015 the average home goal production was 1.47 , and in 2015-2016 , 1.49 and this season 1.51 and if we look at the table below the home teams averaged 2.17
|Leicester||Palace||42||1 0||3 1|
|Leicester||Burnley||45||1 0||3 0|
|Hull||Leicester||45||1 0||2 1|
|Man UTD||Bourne||43||1 0||3 0|
|South.||Palace||43||1 0||4 1|
|Arsenal||Palace||45||1 0||1 1|
|Newcastle||Swansea||40||1 0||3 0|
|Norwich||Newcastle||45||1 0||3 2|
|South.||Chelsea||42||1 0||1 2|
|Villa||Norwich||45||1 0||2 0|
|Leicester||Stoke||42||1 0||3 0|
|Sunderland||Newcastle||45||1 0||3 0|
|WBA||Everton||41||1 0||2 3|
|Newcastle||Chelsea||42||1 0||2 2|
|Man UTD||Sunderland||45||1 0||3 0|
|South.||Norwich||45||1 0||3 0|
|Chelsea||Palace||45||1 0||1 0|
|Leicester||Chelsea||45||1 0||1 3|
|Sunderland||Newcastle||45||1 0||1 0|
|Man UTD||Villa||43||1 0||3 1|
|Arsenal||WHU||45||1 0||3 0|
|Man City||Leicester||45||1 0||2 0|
|Chelsea||Newcastle||43||1 0||2 0|
|Leicester||Villa||45||1 0||1 0|
|Spurs||Southampton||40||1 0||1 0|
|Liverpool||WBA||45||1 0||2 1|
|QPR||Sunderland||45||1 0||1 0|
|Man City||Liverpool||41||1 0||3 1|
|Hull||Stoke||42||1 0||1 1|
The ” academics ” are going to football data seminars and a few are getting up onto a platform to regurgitate research they read circa 1998 +, and it never occurred to any of the academics ( sorry one academic has noted that the draw is as a result of low goal production and not teams fighting back ) to question what they have been advised from the platforms .