No better moment for a goal than just before half-time in the Championship ?

Posted on: November 13th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

“06-06-2016) Ghent University scientists contradict what is generally assumed: if a home team scores just before half-time, then it often scores less after half-time and ends up, averagely speaking, with a lower goal difference.

The football myth doesn’t survive the confrontation with the data. For a given score at half-time, a goal just before half-time does not have any statistically significant effect on the chances of winning.” 

Since 2008-2009 in the Championship in games where the home teams were winning 1-0 at half time , 70% ended a home win, 23% ended a draw and the away teams won 7%.

In the table below I have added the last 30 games in the Championship where the home team opened the scoring in the 40-HT time band  and 1-0 at half time ;

22-6-2 <> the home teams won 73%

In the games in the table below where the home teams opened the scoring on 45 minutes > FT > 2-1 1-0 4-0 4-0 2-1 1-2 2-0 1-1 1-0 3-0 1-0 3-1 3-0 1-1 <> 11-2-1 <> the home teams won 79%

The average goal production in the second half to the home team in the table below  was 1.13 and for the away team the average goal production in the second half was 0.63.

 

 

T HT FT
Sheff Wed QPR 40 1 0 1 0
Reading Hudd. 41 1 0 1 0
Forest Norwich 40 1 0 1 2
Reading Ipswich 45 1 0 2 1
Fulham Cardiff 44 1 0 2 2
Wolves Reading 42 1 0 2 0
Fulham Newcastle 45 1 0 1 0
City Hudd. 45 1 0 4 0
Brighton QPR 45 1 0 4 0
Wed Ipswich 42 1 0 1 1
Hudd Huil 40 1 0 2 2
QPR Charlton 45 1 0 2 1
Cardiff Preston 44 1 0 2 1
Birmingham Wed 45 1 0 1 2
Hull Cadiff 40 1 0 2 0
Rotherham Brighton 45 1 0 2 0
City Charlton 45 1 0 1 1
Burnley Charlton 44 1 0 4 0
Birmingham Cardiff 45 1 0 1 0
Derby City 42 1 0 4 0
Forest Fulham 45 1 0 3 0
Cardiff Burnely 41 1 0 2 2
Cardiff Reading 44 1 0 2 0
Hull Boro 44 1 0 3 0
City Wolves 45 1 0 1 0
Wed Preston 45 1 0 3 1
Blackburn Charlton 45 1 0 3 0
Cardiff Wolves 44 1 0 2 0
QPR Rotherham 42 1 0 4 2
Birmingham Derby 45 1 0 1 1