Next Goal Betting / Survival Analysis Via the Effect of the Early Home Goal Spurs V Manchester City

Posted on: October 2nd, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

1-0 in the Spurs game and Manchester City were offered at 10/11 to score the second goal and you should have identified that the price offered was far shorter then expectation of the game going to the 1-1 pathway .

This season in the Premier League in games where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes ( including today ) pathway

2-0 1-1 2-0 2-0 2-0 2-0 2-0 2-0 1-1

 

last season

GAME PATHWAY

3/41 1-0 FT

26/41  goal > 2-0 24-2-0 <> home teams won 92%

12/41 > 1-1 5-4-3 home teams won 42%

 

in the Premier League since last season in games where the home team opened the scoring 0-10 minutes

3/50 1-0 FT

33/50 > 2-0

14/50 > 1-1

 

You can see why City should not have been offered at 10/11 to score goal 2.