Next Goal Betting Analysis Via the Effect of the Early AWAY Goal Metric and the expected game pathway in Norway Tippeligaen

Posted on: May 6th, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark

https://expert.stratabet.com/2017/02/24/who-scores-next-goal-ratios-and-xgoals-in-the-english-premier-league/

Stratabet recently looked at the next goal expectation via game state analysis which was very encouraging in terms of mainstream exposure in this area but unfortunately they have gone quiet in terms of factoring the effect of the time of the opening goal into their game pathway analysis .

If you look at Norway Tippeligaen in terms of expectation of the game pathway in a sample of games which produce the opening goal by the away team in the 0-20 minutes time band you will discover an interesting ” trend ” which is that there will be lowered expectation of the pathway > 0-2 with the pathway > 1-1 much more likely .

The key point is to establish if this trend is likely to change direction or will there be a season on season long term expectation that the early away goal metric in Norway Tippeligaen will result in expectation of the home team fighting back which you could exploit and one obvious method would be to look at the next goal betting market in this profile.

GAME PATHWAY in Norway Tippeligaen in games where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band ;

1-1 0-2 FT 0-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 FT 0-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 0-2 1-1 0-2 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 0-2 0-2 FT 0-1 0-2 FT 0-1 0-2 0-2 FT 0-1 1-1 1-1 0-2 1-1 < Since last season FT 0-1 5/41 > 1-1 27/41

> 0-2 9/41 < 22% followed that pathway >

You will find that football betting sites for example offer BTTS YES bets ( both teams to score YES ) in a game before it starts , and the problem is that historical btts yes data is not a good predictor of the future.

What is clear is that season on season in Norway Tippeligaen in games where the away team open the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band , BTTS YES % will be high because of much higher expectation of the game pathway > 1-1 then 0-2 .

Although I have been blogging about the effect of the time of the opening goal for a number of years , this is still an area that is emerging.