Newport V Carlisle UTD In Play Betting Review Via the Effect of the Early Home Goal and 1-0 Half Time in League 2

Posted on: November 12th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

In the table below I have added the last 56  games in League 2  where the home team  opened the scoring 0-10 minutes and the half time game state was 1-0;

42-8-6 <> the home teams won 75% 

At 1-0 half time Newport were offered @8/15 ( 1/0.75 = 1/3 ) which means that the offer for Newport at half time was perceived value 

GAME PATHWAY 

10/56 1-0 FT = 18% > 1/0.18 = 9/2 and at Half Time no second goal was offered at 3/1 so in effect the market over estimated the game not producing a second half goal .

28/56 ( 28-0-0) >  2-0 = 50% > 1/0.50 = Evens   and at Half Time Newport were offered at 13/8 to score the second goal and we can see that the market under estimated expectation of the game pathway > 2-0 in this game .

18/56  ( 4-8-6 ) > 1-1 = 32% > 1/0.32 = 21/10 and at Half Time Carlisle were offered at 21/20 to score the second goal and we can see that the market over estimated expectation of the game pathway > 1-1 in this game 

21% of the games in the table followed the PATHWAY > 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 minute time band 

 

 

 

T HT T+1 FT
Newport Carlisle 2 1 0 H72 2 0
Cheltenham Crawley 3 1 0 H62 2 1
Colcheter Accrington 7 1 0 A59 1 2
Newport Cambridge 10 1 0 A61 1 2
Plymouth Cambridge 9 1 0 H59 2 1
Luton Wycombe 10 1 0 H56 4 1
Doncaster Yeovil 1 1 0 H54 4 1
Hartlepool Notts County 8 1 0 A65 1 2
Wycombe Accrington 5 1 0 A48 1 1
Colchester Cambridge 8 1 0 H82 2 0
Grimsby Morecambe 6 1 0 H63 2 0
Oxford Hartlepool 7 1 0 H90 2 0
Mansfield Notts County 6 1 0 H57 5 0
Barnet Bristol Rovers 5 1 0 1 0
Northampton Barnet 5 1 0 H52 3 0
Wycombe Crawley 7 1 0 H90 2 0
Stevenage Accrington 1 1 0 A85 1 1
Orient AFC W. 10 1 0 A80 1 1
Northampton Mansfield 4 1 0 1 0
Exeter Cambridge 9 1 0 1 0
Hartlepool Barnet 7 1 0 A64 1 1
Stevenage Wycombe 10 1 0 H60 2 1
Cambridge Portsmouth 5 1 0 A67 1 3
AFC W, Barnet 7 1 0 H90 2 0
Hartlepool Carlisle 6 1 0 A57 2 3
Bristol Rovers Barnet 2 1 0 H77 3 1
Mansfield Oxford 3 1 0 A58 1 1
Stevenage Portsmouth 3 1 0 1 0
Wycombe Exeter 7 1 0 A76 2 1
Morecambe Portsmouth 10 1 0 H69 3 1
Plymouth Mansfield 2 1 0 H63 2 1
Dagenham AFC W. 2 1 0 H58 4 0
AFC W, Portsmouth 6 1 0 1 0
Shrewsbury Oxford 2 1 0 H82 2 0
Portsmouth Luton 3 1 0 H62 2 0
Wycombe Shrewsbury 1 1 0 1 0
Bury Luton 9 1 0 1 0
Cheltenham Tranmere 9 1 0 H61 2 0
Northampton York 4 1 0 H48 3 0
AFC W, Exeter 9 1 0 H48 4 1
Mansfield Hartlepool 10 1 0 A51 1 1
Newport Plymouth 9 1 0 H82 2 0
Luton Newport 5 1 0 H51 3 0
Plymouth York 3 1 0 A90 1 1
Tranmere Portsmouth 2 1 0 A57 3 1
Dagenham Shrewsbury 6 1 0 A70 1 2
Exeter Bury 5 1 0 A59 2 1
Luton Oxford 2 1 0 H67 2 0
Southend Shrewsbury 2 1 0 1 0
Luton Cheltenham 8 1 0 1 0
Burton Portsmouth 2 1 0 H55 2 0
Accrington Tranmere 8 1 0 A46 3 2
Hartlepool Shrewsbury 5 1 0 H79 2 0
Shrewsbury Luton 3 1 0 H70 2 0
Exeter York 8 1 0 A82 1 1
Mansfield Newport 2 1 0 1 0