Napoli V Palermo In Play Betting Review Via the Early Away Goal and 0-1 Half Time Game State and the Home ” Fightback ” Metric in Serie A

Posted on: January 30th, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark

Napoli home fightback

4/9 2/1 20/1

over 3.5 at 5/4

In the table below I have added the last 20 games in Serie A where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band and the half time game state was 0-1 added to the home fightback ( 1-1 ) in the second half in the 46-70 minutes time band ;

8-8-4 <> the home teams won 40% , 1/0.4 = 6/4 , and we can see at 1-1 in the Napoli game that the offer of 4/9 for a Napoli win was much shorter then expectation as a result of the events that occurred.

65% ended over 2.5 goals and 40% ended over 3.5 goals ( 6/4 ) and on 66 minutes in the Napoli game over 3.5 goals were offered at 5/4 and we can see that expectation of further goal(s) was much higher then it should have been.

T HT T+1 FT
Napoli Palermo 6 0 1 H66 1 1
Pescara Sass 1 0 1 H56 1 3
Udinese Torino 15 0 1 H60 2 2
Hellas Frosinone 15 0 1 H64 1 2
Napoli Genoa 10 0 1 H51 3 1
Sass Udinese 8 0 1 H64 1 1
Empoli Frosinone 17 0 1 H59 1 2
Milan Udinese 17 0 1 H48 1 1
Lazio Chievo 5 0 1 H66 4 1
Inter Lazio 5 0 1 H61 1 2
Atalanta Lazio 16 0 1 H69 2 1
Torino Fiorentina 10 0 1 H67 3 1
Lazio Milan 4 0 1 H47 3 1
Sass Empoli 18 0 1 H56 3 1
Napoli Torino 14 0 1 H55 2 1
Milan Torino 17 0 1 H49 1 1
Genoa Torino 7 0 1 H69 1 1
Juventus Cagliari 13 0 1 H61 1 1
Napoli Cagliari 18 0 1 H48 3 2
Roma Pescara 14 0 1 H51 1 1