Manchester City V Everton In Play Betting Review Via Survival Analysis

Posted on: August 23rd, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark

Survival analysis is generally defined as a set of methods for analyzing data where the outcome variable is the time until the occurrence of an event of interest. The event can be death, occurrence of a disease, marriage, divorce, etc.

In terms of football and survival analysis this is quite simple < how good is a team in an individual league at holding on to their opening goal advantage as a result of the time of the opening goal as time decays in a game ? Manchester City before the game started were offered at 3/10 so one could assume that the betting industry had expectation that Manchester City were the perceived much stronger team. At 0-1 on 35 minutes Manchester City were offered at 6/5 and the key point would be to understand how the events in a game can reduce the perceived strength of a team .

If we look at conceding data for example > Manchester City last 20 at home in the Premier League when conceding the opening goal and they won 6/20 so without looking at the time of the opening goal , I would think that this should have not triggered your bet on City at a price of 6/5 because 6/20 = 30% , 1/0.3 = 3.33

Everton last 20 away in the Premier League when opening the scoring and they lost only 3/20 which should have again given you very little interest in backing Man City at 6/5 at 0-1 .

The last 19 games in the Premier League where the away team opened the scoring on 35 minutes and there were only 3 home wins ( all 3 home wins produced the winner on 90 minutes )

Summary

If your betting strategy is around starting prices in terms of perceived strength during games then the flaw in your strategy is that you do not understand that the perceived strength of a team can be weakened by event(s) that may occur in a game which you can react to in play >

games in the PL where the away team open the scoring on 35 minutes <

Manchester City
1 – 1
Everton View events More info
0 – 1
35′ W. Rooney
R. Sterling 82′
1 – 1

West Ham United
0 – 4
Liverpool View events More info
0 – 1
35′ D. Sturridge
0 – 2
57′ Philippe Coutinho
0 – 3
61′ Philippe Coutinho
0 – 4
76′ D. Origi

Sunderland
1 – 1
West Bromwich … View events More info
0 – 1
35′ N. Chadli
P. van Aanholt 83′
1 – 1

Chelsea
2 – 2
Tottenham Hotspur View events More info
0 – 1
35′ H. Kane
0 – 2
44′ Heung-Min Son
G. Cahill 58′
1 – 2
E. Hazard 83′
2 – 2

Tottenham Hotspur
0 – 1
Aston Villa View events More info
0 – 1
35′ C. Benteke

Manchester City
1 – 1
Hull City View events More info
0 – 1
35′ D. Meyler
J. Milner 90′
1 – 1

Arsenal
2 – 1
Crystal Palace View events More info
0 – 1
35′ B. Hangeland
L. Koscielny 45′
1 – 1
A. Ramsey 90′
2 – 1

Swansea City
1 – 3
Tottenham Hotspur View events More info
0 – 1
35′ E. Adebayor
0 – 2
53′ Chico Flores (OG)
0 – 3
71′ E. Adebayor
W. Bony 78′
1 – 3

Norwich City
2 – 2
Swansea City View events More info
0 – 1
35′ Michu
R. Snodgrass 40′
1 – 1
M. Turner 60′
2 – 1
2 – 2
75′ L. Moore

Reading
0 – 2
Southampton View events More info
0 – 1
35′ J. Rodriguez
0 – 2
72′ A. Lallana

Wigan Athletic
3 – 2
Reading View events More info
0 – 1
35′ S. Morrison
Jordi Gómez 58′
1 – 1
Jordi Gómez 68′
2 – 1
2 – 2
79′ Ali Al Habsi (OG)
Jordi Gómez 90′
3 – 2

Stoke City
1 – 2
West Bromwich … View events More info
0 – 1
35′ J. Morrison
C. Jerome 86′
1 – 1
1 – 2
90′ G. Dorrans

Stoke City
2 – 1
Aston Villa View events More info
0 – 1
35′ S. Downing
K. Jones 80′
1 – 1
R. Huth 90′
2 – 1

Blackpool
2 – 2
Fulham View events More info
0 – 1
35′ B. Zamora
J. Paintsil (OG) 71′
1 – 1
L. Varney 76′
2 – 1
2 – 2
87′ D. Etuhu

Fulham
1 – 1
Bolton Wanderers View events More info
0 – 1
35′ I. Klasnić
D. Duff 75′
1 – 1

Everton
1 – 2
Manchester City View events More info
0 – 1
35′ Robinho
0 – 2
54′ S. Ireland
D. Gosling 90′
1 – 2

Blackburn Rovers
1 – 1
West Ham United View events More info
0 – 1
35′ M. Noble
K. Andrews 51′
1 – 1

Middlesbrough
1 – 1
Tottenham Hotspur View events More info
0 – 1
35′ D. Bent
L. Young 52′
1 – 1

Everton
1 – 2
Tottenham Hotspur View events More info
0 – 1
35′ D. Berbatov
Arteta 42′
1 – 1
1 – 2
89′ J. Jenas