Laying 1-1 Correct Score Strategy In Play ? Analysis of 1-1 FT in the MLS

Posted on: July 2nd, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark

This season in the MLS 7% of games have ended 1-1 FT but 0% of games that produced either the opening goal by the home team 0-10 or the opening goal by the away team 0-20 this season have ended 1-1 .

last 58 games in the MLS that ended 1-1 FT >

4/58 7% < produced the opening goal by the home team in the 0-10 minutes time band why would that be so low ? . 1-0 HT goal 0-10 minutes MLS > lowered expectation of 1-1 FT , because if > 1-1 with 2nd goal in 46-70 minutes time band < 1-1 FT will be a rare event < 2-0 pathway will be more likely anyway >

In this masterwork Pullein explains how you can work out what is likely to happen …. Kevin Pullein is the leading football commentator for the Racing Post. … for instance, a team which is losing by 0-1 is 6% more likely to score the next goal …”

In games that are 1-0 at half time to the home team with the opening goal in the 0-10 minutes time band MLS , back against ( lay ) 1-1 correct score and you will need to have access to an exchange account and if the game is still 1-0 on 69 minutes then you should trade out by backing 1-1 correct score to avoid the possibility of a late fightback goal

Last 58 games in MLS 1-1 FT >

8/58 > produced the opening goal by the away team in the 0-20 minutes time band = 14% < the opening goal by the away team in MLS and lowered expectation of the game ending 1-1 FT >

1. expectation of acceleration of goal production in general

2. 0-1 half time goal 0-20 minutes MLS and the home fightback > 1-1 in the 46-70 minutes time band and around 80% + expectation of a further goal

3. the opening goal by the away team in MLS in the 0-20 minutes time band and 1-1 half time game state > around 85% + expectation of a further goal in the 2nd half

Sporting KC
1 – 1
Portland Timbers
0 – 1
26′ D. Váleri
D. Salloi 60′
1 – 1 < in this game we should have seen high expectation of a further goal given the 2nd half home fightback metric in the MLS Houston Dynamo 1 - 1 Dallas E. Torres 19' 1 - 0 1 - 1 59' M. Urruti < around 70% expectation of a further goal given the away fightback metric ( 2nd half ( in the MLS Seattle Sounders 1 - 1 Orlando City W. Bruin 19' 1 - 0 1 - 1 90' S. Sutter Vancouver Whit… 1 - 1 Dallas 0 - 1 52' M. Urruti C. Techera 74' 1 - 1 Sporting KC 1 - 1 Montreal Impact Gerso Fernandes 24' 1 - 0 1 - 1 82' M. Mancosu New York RB 1 - 1 Toronto B. Wright-Phillips 38' 1 - 0 1 - 1 70' B. Cheyrou SJ Earthquakes 1 - 1 Orlando City 0 - 1 80' C. Rivas C. Wondolowski 83' 1 - 1 Dallas 1 - 1 New York City K. Acosta 20' 1 - 0 1 - 1 68' T. McNamara Portland Timbers 1 - 1 Atlanta United 0 - 1 46' J. Gressel L. Ridgewell 50' 1 - 1 SJ Earthquakes 1 - 1 Dallas 0 - 1 78' K. Acosta J. Hyka 90' 1 - 1 SJ Earthquakes 1 - 1 Seattle Sounders 0 - 1 84' N. Lodeiro C. Wondolowski 90' 1 - 1 Portland Timbers 1 - 1 New England D. Váleri 12' 1 - 0 1 - 1 84' L. Nguyen New York City 1 - 1 Montreal Impact R. Wallace 44' 1 - 0 1 - 1 68' D. Oduro Columbus Crew 1 - 1 Chicago Fire E. Finlay 17' 1 - 0 1 - 1 73' D. Accam Colorado Rapids 1 - 1 Houston Dynamo 0 - 1 20' A. Wenger S. Gashi 67' 1 - 1 Eek Toronto 1 - 1 Philadelphia Union 0 - 1 25' A. Bedoya J. Morrow 70' 1 - 1 SJ Earthquakes 1 - 1 Seattle Sounders C. Wondolowski 20' 1 - 0 1 - 1 80' N. Lodeiro Philadelphia Union 1 - 1 Montreal Impact T. Barnetta 45' 1 - 0 1 - 1 88' M. Mancosu Houston Dynamo 1 - 1 Seattle Sounders A. Wenger 75' 1 - 0 1 - 1 90' N. Lodeiro Montreal Impact 1 - 1 DC United 0 - 1 39' L. Neagle (PG) H. Camara 77' 1 - 1 Houston Dynamo 1 - 1 Toronto C. Maidana 8' 1 - 0 1 - 1 Eek 24' J. Altidore LA Galaxy 1 - 1 Colorado Rapids 0 - 1 51' S. Gashi G. dos Santos 62' 1 - 1 Houston Dynamo 1 - 1 SJ Earthquakes Alex 45' 1 - 0 1 - 1 59' C. Wondolowski DC United 1 - 1 Montreal Impact P. Mullins 20' 1 - 0 1 - 1 86' H. Bernardello Seattle Sounders 1 - 1 LA Galaxy C. Roldan 49' 1 - 0 1 - 1 78' S. Lletget Colorado Rapids 1 - 1 Dallas M. Hairston 44' 1 - 0 1 - 1 82' V. Ulloa Real Salt Lake 1 - 1 SJ Earthquakes 0 - 1 9' C. Wondolowski L. Mulholland 64' 1 - 1 Eek Columbus Crew 1 - 1 DC United O. Kamara 63' 1 - 0 1 - 1 89' F. Espíndola Portland Timbers 1 - 1 Montreal Impact J. McInerney 14' 1 - 0 1 - 1 44' I. Piatti Columbus Crew 1 - 1 Toronto H. Afful 54' 1 - 0 1 - 1 64' J. Hamilton Real Salt Lake 1 - 1 Montreal Impact 0 - 1 8' H. Shipp Y. Movsisyan (PG) 79' 1 - 1 Eek Toronto 1 - 1 Seattle Sounders J. Hamilton 60' 1 - 0 1 - 1 61' J. Morris Real Salt Lake 1 - 1 DC United J. Martínez 57' 1 - 0 1 - 1 90' J. Jeffrey SJ Earthquakes 1 - 1 LA Galaxy 0 - 1 69' G. dos Santos C. Barrett 90' 1 - 1 Columbus Crew 1 - 1 New York RB 0 - 1 52' B. Wright-Phillips O. Kamara 90' 1 - 1 Dallas 1 - 1 Houston Dynamo R. Hollingshead 23' 1 - 0 1 - 1 51' R. Clark Colorado Rapids 1 - 1 Philadelphia Union S. Cronin 87' 1 - 0 1 - 1 90' B. Carroll Chicago Fire 1 - 1 Portland Timbers 0 - 1 18' D. Váleri D. Accam 20' 1 - 1 Eek Vancouver Whit… 1 - 1 Houston Dynamo 0 - 1 20' D. Beasley O. Rivero 52' 1 - 1 Eek LA Galaxy 1 - 1 SJ Earthquakes M. Wynne (OG) 83' 1 - 0 1 - 1 87' F. Alashe Toronto 1 - 1 New York City 0 - 1 16' K. Poku W. Johnson 42' 1 - 1 Eek Columbus Crew 1 - 1 Colorado Rapids C. Mabwati 23' 1 - 0 1 - 1 55' K. Doyle Montreal Impact 1 - 1 Philadelphia Union D. Drogba 3' 1 - 0 1 - 1 Eek 24' C. Sapong Orlando City 1 - 1 New York RB 0 - 1 19' B. Wright-Phillips K. Molino 67' 1 - 1 Eek Sporting KC 1 - 1 LA Galaxy B. Davis 30' 1 - 0 1 - 1 42' G. dos Santos Chicago Fire 1 - 1 DC United J. Campbell 41' 1 - 0 1 - 1 64' P. Nyarko Philadelphia Union 1 - 1 SJ Earthquakes C. Pontius 30' 1 - 0 1 - 1 83' S. Dawkins Vancouver Whit… 1 - 1 Sporting KC C. Bolaños 14' 1 - 0 1 - 1 27' D. Rubio New England 1 - 1 Portland Timbers 0 - 1 64' J. Barmby J. Taylor (OG) 89' 1 - 1 New York City 1 - 1 Montreal Impact R. Allen 51' 1 - 0 1 - 1 90' D. Oduro LA Galaxy 1 - 1 Portland Timbers 0 - 1 52' F. Adi N. Borchers (OG) 84' 1 - 1 Houston Dynamo 1 - 1 Seattle Sounders G. Barnes 35' 1 - 0 1 - 1 90' C. Marshall New England 1 - 1 Toronto K. Rowe 14' 1 - 0 1 - 1 58' S. Giovinco SJ Earthquakes 1 - 1 DC United 0 - 1 34' P. Nyarko A. Jahn 88' 1 - 1 Dallas 1 - 1 Columbus Crew 0 - 1 9' Justin Meram T. Akindele 77' 1 - 1 Eek New York City 1 - 1 New England T. McNamara 10' 1 - 0 1 - 1 Eek 38' C. Tierney DC United 1 - 1 Colorado Rapids 0 - 1 69' D. Powers F. Espíndola 80' 1 - 1 Orlando City 1 - 1 Chicago Fire C. Larin 4' 1 - 0 1 - 1 14 Eek ' D. Accam