Laying the Draw in Play ( LTD ) V ” Trading ” the Draw in play around the effect of the time of the opening goal

Posted on: March 23rd, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark

“Goals: More goals mean more chances to trade out with a profit. You are always going to hit the odd 0-0 draw, but aim for plenty of goals and you will minimise losing trades. Recent form is a great indicator, making sure that teams you’re banking on have been scoring goals. ”

> Sotdoc response > Expectation of a goal is dependent on the current score ( GAME STATE ) added to the effect of the time of the opening goal with reference to accuracy as time decays in the game.

” I have been forced to tackle the evolution of the Betfair match odds markets, ensuring that lay the draw is still a profitable trading strategy to use.

In order to reduce liability and increase profit margins, I set out to develop first half and second half lay the draw strategies. First half LTD is more difficult to get right because teams don’t have to score, but the market knows that so prices are reduced accordingly.

I developed a couple of very strong strategies which Goal Profits members have full access to, including a daily shortlist of matches delivered by our Team Stats software.

Kevin further developed these first and second half strategies by taking advantage of goal windows.

Without Team Stats data I wouldn’t fancy my chances, but the automated filters are working well.

I also developed and tested a ‘full match’ lay the draw strategy.

It is higher risk than first or second half lay the draw and that doesn’t suit all types of trader, but it is available for those Goal Profits members who wish to use it.

Rather than the traditional LTD method with its squeezed margins, this new version specifically looks for matches which are likely to go 2-0 and bank a much bigger profit ”

Sotdoc response > The thought process that a high % of games in football end a draw because of teams fighting back ( > 1-1 ) is flawed and the actual reason is because football in general will produce a low goal production hence the draw bias with the caveat that an early goal metric could result in expectation of acceleration of goal production which may lower expectation of a draw.

If you are at a trading seminar / trading room discussing which games are likely to go from 0-1/1-0 to 2-0/0-2 , this area is known as GAME PATHWAY ANALYSIS

For example last season in the Premier League in games where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band , > 1-1 pathway was just as likely as > 0-2 pathway .

6/63 0-1 FT

29/63 > 1-1 <> 7-13-9 away teams won 31%

28/63 > 0-2 <> 1-3-24 away teams won 86%

We can look at the % of draws in the Premier League in games where the away teams open the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band

27% 24% 29% 15% 28% 18% 17% 25% ( 08-09-15-16 )

What if the early away goal game in the Premier League is 0-1 half time in terms of expectation of draw bias ?

26% 22% 29% 11% 35% 21% 0% 19% ( 08-09-15-16 )

Do you look to lay the draw late in games in an attempt to bag a late goal ?

42% 46% 45% 50% 33% 46% 44% 38% ( goal % 80+ in games in the Premier League where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minute time band )

Summary

Look at the trading sites/seminars which advise that they use a “stats” model to derive expectation of a high goal production in a game in terms of using a LTD strategy and if they have not factored the time of the opening goal added to the current score then it is time to move on.