Lay the Draw Strategy : The Effect of the Early Home Goal added to 1-0 Half Time Game State and the 2nd Half Away Fightback Metric in the Premier League

Posted on: April 26th, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark

You will probably have layed the draw in a game before it starts to be frustrated by a 0-0 full time result and in order to avoid that pitfall I have created an in play trading strategy around the effect of the time of the opening goal in terms of expectation of the game ending a draw.

In the table below I have added the last 20 games in the Premier League where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band and the half time game state was 1-0 added to the 2nd half away fightback ( > 1-1 ) with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 time band;

9-6-5 < 30% ended a draw with 85% over 2.5 goals < in this profile in the Premier League you should be looking to back over 2.5 goals / lay the draw > at 1-2 / 2-1 < simply trade out of your draw position as 1-1 in this profile will be a rare event. A whopping 75% of the games in the table below produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes .

T HT T+1 FT Goal 80 +
Stoke Hull 6 1 0 A51 3 1 80
Swansea Liverpool 8 1 0 A54 1 2 84
Everton Spurs 5 1 0 A59 1 1
WHU Man UTD 10 1 0 A51 3 2 80
Hull Spurs 8 1 0 A61 1 2 90
WBA Man UTD 8 1 0 A48 2 2 87
Swansea WBA 2 1 0 A52 1 2 85
Sunderland Newcastle 5 1 0 A57 2 1 84
Sunderland Man UTD 5 1 0 A61 1 2
Palace Sunderland 9 1 0 A64 3 1 90
Arsenal Villa 6 1 0 A68 2 1 85
Fulham WHU 10 1 0 A48 3 1 90
Fulham Everton 7 1 0 A55 2 2 90
Southampton Fulham 4 1 0 A70 2 2 8890
Norwich Wigan 10 1 0 A68 1 1
Chelsea Norwich 6 1 0 A63 3 1 8290
Spurs Bolton 6 1 0 A55 2 1 90
Wolves WHU 10 1 0 A53 1 1
Blackburn Birmingham 5 1 0 A55 2 1
Fulham Blackburn 2 1 0 A69 1 2 85