Lay the Draw Strategy In Play : The Effect of the Early Home Goal Metric in League 2 : 2015-2016 V 2016-2017

Posted on: May 20th, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark

Last season in League 2 where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band, 77% ended over 2.5 goals and 54% ended over 3.5 goals

Both team scored in 70% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 72%

The home teams won 63%, 14% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 23%

44% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes

GAME PATHWAY ( 2015-2016)

3/57 1-0 FT

> 1-1 20/57 <> 3-6-11 <> home teams won 15%

> 2-0 34/57 <> 30-2-2 <> home teams won 88%

This season in League 2 in games where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band , 79% ended over 2.5 goals and 53% ended over 3.5 goals

both teams scored in 72% and over 1.5 first half goals was landed in the first half in 60%

44% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes

GAME PATHWAY

2/57 1-0 FT

> 1-1 23/57 6-7-10 home teams won 26%

> 2-0 32/57 31-1-0 home teams won 97%

39-8-10 < 14% ended a DRAW “In this masterwork Pullein explains how you can work out what is likely to happen …. Kevin Pullein is the leading football commentator for the Racing Post. … for instance, a team which is losing by 0-1 is 6% more likely to score the next goal “ In league 2 in games where the home team open the scoring 0-10 minutes it is the home team that will be more likely to score the 2nd goal < this is why in this profile in league 2 there will be lowered expectation of a draw which means you should be looking to back against the draw ( lay the draw ) in league 2 as time decays in games that produce an early home goal metric. Crewe Alexandra 4 - 1 Barnet C. Dagnall 8' 1 - 0 C. Dagnall 25' 2 - 0 2 - 1 64' C. Weston C. Dagnall 67' 3 - 1 G. Cooper 76' 4 - 1 Exeter City 2 - 3 Carlisle United R. Reid 9' 1 - 0 1 - 1 30' D. Grainger (PG) J. Moore-Taylor 45' 2 - 1 2 - 2 72' D. Grainger (PG) 2 - 3 75' J. Proctor Grimsby Town 1 - 1 Plymouth Argyle S. Pearson 1' 1 - 0 1 - 1 61' J. Spencer Grimsby Town 4 - 2 Yeovil Town S. Jones (PG) 6' 1 - 0 C. Clements 36' 2 - 0 2 - 1 47' A. Lawless S. Vernon 59' 3 - 1 J. Osborne 62' 4 - 1 4 - 2 75' F. Zoko Wycombe Wanderers 2 - 1 Doncaster Rovers L. O'Nien 9' 1 - 0 1 - 1 18' A. May L. O'Nien 32' 2 - 1 Exeter City 2 - 1 Barnet J. Moore-Taylor 4' 1 - 0 D. Wheeler 6' 2 - 0 2 - 1 69' J. Akinde Notts County 3 - 1 Colchester United H. Hollis 8' 1 - 0 1 - 1 21' C. Porter Shola Ameobi 34' 2 - 1 Shola Ameobi 73' 3 - 1 Colchester United 2 - 1 Luton Town C. Porter 4' 1 - 0 C. Porter 31' 2 - 0 2 - 1 90' I. Vassell Stevenage 3 - 0 Notts County M. Godden 3' 1 - 0 J. King 60' 2 - 0 M. Godden 62' 3 - 0 Luton Town 1 - 1 Plymouth Argyle D. Hylton 8' 1 - 0 1 - 1 25' C. Tanner Morecambe 1 - 0 Grimsby Town L. Molyneux 2' 1 - 0 Blackpool 2 - 2 Crewe Alexandra N. Delfouneso 8' 1 - 0 T. Aldred 27' 2 - 0 2 - 1 62' C. Dagnall 2 - 2 88' O. Turton Wycombe Wanderers 1 - 2 Carlisle United A. Akinfenwa 2' 1 - 0 1 - 1 9' J. Proctor 1 - 2 34' R. Lambe Luton Town 3 - 0 Hartlepool United D. Hylton 5' 1 - 0 L. Gambin 13' 2 - 0 O. Palmer 81' 3 - 0 Plymouth Argyle 2 - 3 Leyton Orient A. Sarcevic 10' 1 - 0 1 - 1 43' G. Massey M. Kennedy 54' 2 - 1 2 - 2 88' G. Massey 2 - 3 90' Sandro Semedo Crewe Alexandra 5 - 0 Grimsby Town G. Cooper 2' 1 - 0 C. Dagnall 16' 2 - 0 G. Cooper 25' 3 - 0 C. Dagnall 29' 4 - 0 C. Cooke 87' 5 - 0 Portsmouth 2 - 0 Accrington Stanley M. Clarke 2' 1 - 0 K. Naismith 90' 2 - 0 Exeter City 4 - 0 Crewe Alexandra J. Moore-Taylor 8' 1 - 0 D. Wheeler 58' 2 - 0 D. Wheeler 68' 3 - 0 L. James 85' 4 - 0 Stevenage 2 - 0 Grimsby Town S. Schumacher 4' 1 - 0 J. McAnuff 61' 2 - 0 Cambridge United 1 - 3 Mansfield Town G. Maris 8' 1 - 0 1 - 1 43' L. Legge (OG) 1 - 2 58' K. Pearce 1 - 3 73' S. Coulthirst Mansfield Town 3 - 0 Crewe Alexandra Y. Arquin 5' 1 - 0 B. Whiteman 48' 2 - 0 R. Bennett 83' 3 - 0 Morecambe 4 - 1 Notts County L. Molyneux 2' 1 - 0 P. Mullin 27' 2 - 0 M. Rose (PG) 31' 3 - 0 3 - 1 80' J. Forte K. Ellison 90' 4 - 1 Stevenage 3 - 1 Newport County M. Godden 9' 1 - 0 M. Godden 42' 2 - 0 M. Godden (PG) 62' 3 - 0 3 - 1 89' D. Butler Doncaster Rovers 3 - 1 Portsmouth J. Marquis 5' 1 - 0 1 - 1 41' K. Naismith T. Rowe 58' 2 - 1 J. Marquis 71' 3 - 1 Colchester United 2 - 0 Cheltenham Town T. Eastman 10' 1 - 0 B. Dickenson 84' 2 - 0 Exeter City 4 - 0 Leyton Orient D. Wheeler 4' 1 - 0 R. Harley 50' 2 - 0 R. Harley (PG) 65' 3 - 0 L. McAlinden 82' 4 - 0 Hartlepool United 3 - 2 Morecambe P. Amond 10' 1 - 0 B. Paynter (PG) 14' 2 - 0 N. Featherstone 24' 3 - 0 3 - 1 52' A. Fleming 3 - 2 90' P. Mullin Leyton Orient 3 - 2 Crawley Town S. Dalby 4' 1 - 0 P. McCallum 11' 2 - 0 P. McCallum (PG) 45' 3 - 0 3 - 1 54' T. Mézague (OG) 3 - 2 78' E. Boldewijn Carlisle United 2 - 1 Yeovil Town S. Brisley 10' 1 - 0 C. Wyke 36' 2 - 0 2 - 1 48' N. Smith Crawley Town 3 - 1 Newport County J. Collins 3' 1 - 0 1 - 1 33' J. Labadie J. Yorwerth 48' 2 - 1 J. Smith 52' 3 - 1 Morecambe 1 - 2 Cheltenham Town P. Murphy 6' 1 - 0 1 - 1 70' B. Waters 1 - 2 71' H. Pell Doncaster Rovers 1 - 0 Grimsby Town L. Mandeville 3' 1 - 0 Blackpool 4 - 1 Newport County B. Potts 4' 1 - 0 1 - 1 21' R. Healey J. Payne 61' 2 - 1 K. Vassell 72' 3 - 1 K. Mellor 83' 4 - 1 Cambridge United 3 - 1 Cheltenham Town U. Ikpeazu 7' 1 - 0 L. Berry 56' 2 - 0 L. Berry 74' 3 - 0 3 - 1 85' B. Waters Luton Town 1 - 3 Portsmouth D. Hylton 7' 1 - 0 1 - 1 11' M. Smith 1 - 2 45' G. Evans 1 - 3 85' K. Naismith Crawley Town 1 - 3 Cambridge United J. Collins 8' 1 - 0 1 - 1 19' G. Taylor 1 - 2 28' U. Ikpeazu 1 - 3 51' L. Berry Newport County 2 - 0 Carlisle United J. Sheehan 2' 1 - 0 R. Healey 72' 2 - 0 Carlisle United 3 - 1 Crawley Town J. Ibehre 5' 1 - 0 J. Kennedy 28' 2 - 0 L. Joyce 45' 3 - 0 3 - 1 90' M. Connolly Colchester United 2 - 2 Morecambe C. Porter 4' 1 - 0 1 - 1 27' T. Barkhuizen C. Porter (PG) 39' 2 - 1 2 - 2 77' L. Molyneux Cheltenham Town 2 - 1 Crawley Town B. Waters 3' 1 - 0 J. Munns 62' 2 - 0 2 - 1 78' Kaby Barnet 2 - 2 Morecambe J. Akinde 7' 1 - 0 1 - 1 9' T. Barkhuizen J. Akinde 31' 2 - 1 2 - 2 81' C. Stockton Colchester United 1 - 2 Accrington Stanley Drey Wright 7' 1 - 0 1 - 1 59' R. Boco 1 - 2 68' B. Kee Newport County 1 - 2 Cambridge United R. Healey 10' 1 - 0 1 - 1 61' U. Ikpeazu 1 - 2 83' L. Berry Yeovil Town 4 - 2 Cheltenham Town O. Khan 6' 1 - 0 D. Ward 16' 2 - 0 2 - 1 41' A. Downes M. Dolan 45' 3 - 1 3 - 2 57' B. Waters T. Eaves 90' 4 - 2 Plymouth Argyle 2 - 1 Cambridge United G. Carey 9' 1 - 0 J. Slew 59' 2 - 0 2 - 1 79' M. Elito Luton Town 4 - 1 Wycombe Wanderers D. Hylton 10' 1 - 0 D. Hylton 56' 2 - 0 2 - 1 63' M. Bloomfield D. Hylton (PG) 88' 3 - 1 J. Cook 90' 4 - 1 Portsmouth 3 - 0 Crawley Town C. Main 9' 1 - 0 G. Roberts 12' 2 - 0 C. Main 37' 3 - 0 Doncaster Rovers 4 - 1 Yeovil Town A. Williams 1' 1 - 0 J. Coppinger 54' 2 - 0 2 - 1 55' R. Hedges A. Williams 82' 3 - 1 A. Williams 90' 4 - 1 Hartlepool United 2 - 2 Newport County N. Featherstone 2' 1 - 0 1 - 1 4' S. Rigg 1 - 2 27' J. Parkin P. Amond 38' 2 - 2 Cambridge United 2 - 2 Carlisle United L. Legge 7' 1 - 0 1 - 1 23' J. Kennedy L. Berry (PG) 41' 2 - 1 2 - 2 59' C. Wyke Hartlepool United 1 - 2 Notts County A. Nsiala 8' 1 - 0 1 - 1 65' L. Laing 1 - 2 76' J. Stead Colchester United 3 - 2 Grimsby Town B. Dickenson 10' 1 - 0 K. Guthrie 34' 2 - 0 B. Dickenson 39' 3 - 0 3 - 1 48' C. Disley 3 - 2 90' O. Bogle Morecambe 2 - 0 Portsmouth R. Edwards 10' 1 - 0 T. Barkhuizen 21' 2 - 0 Wycombe Wanderers 1 - 1 Accrington Stanley A. Akinfenwa 5' 1 - 0 1 - 1 48' S. McConville Colchester United 2 - 0 Cambridge United B. Dickenson 8' 1 - 0 D. Johnstone 82' 2 - 0 Accrington Stanley 3 - 2 Doncaster Rovers R. Boco 8' 1 - 0 1 - 1 12' T. Rowe M. Pearson 29' 2 - 1 2 - 2 82' A. Williams S. McConville 90' 3 - 2 Grimsby Town 2 - 0 Morecambe K. Jackson 6' 1 - 0 B. Davies 63' 2 - 0