How common is a Goal within 10 minutes by the Home Team that has conceded the opening goal in Norway Tippeligaen in the 0-20 minutes time band ? Are Teams Vulnerable when they have just scored ?

Posted on: April 21st, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

You may have read a few publications arguing that teams are not vulnerable when they have just scored to a quick response but this statement is not correct if you look at the early goal metric added to leagues where there is expectation of the other team fighting back.

Norway Tippieligaen is a league where the away team opens the scoring 0-20 minutes and some expectation of the home team fighting back so in theory a fightback within 10 minutes should be common.

http://www.sotdoc.co.uk/the-effect-of-the-early-away-goal-in-norway-tippeligaen-2014-v-2015-2/

Below I have added games in Norway Tippeligaen since last season  where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 and the pathway was 1-1 to define how common a quick fightback is in this league .

12-19  12-83 14-47 8-67 14-20 17-19  8-15  15-39 20-60 15-45 15-78 7-43  10-12 11-31  19-23  4-10 11-13 9-31  6-8 7-60  5-9 15-53 10-27 8-34  16-23 4-57 13-32 4-43 10-35 8-31 11-90

35% produced a response within 10 minutes .

Summary

Teams are not vulnerable to a quick response in games where there is no early goal metric but in leagues where there is an early goal and expectation of a fightback , a quick response will be a common event.