Granada V Atletico Bilbao Review Via Game State Analysis and the Effect of the Early away goal in La Liga

Posted on: September 22nd, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

Bilbao opened the scoring on 15 minutes   and the prices offered were 11/1 4/1 2/7 with over 2.5 at 4/6.

Last  season in La Liga in games where the away teams opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band, 76% ended over 2.5 goals and 41% ended over 3.5 goals

Both teams scored in 63% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 67%

The home teams won 27%, 17% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 56%

40% of the games in the table below produced a goal(s) 80+ minutes

 

GAME PATHWAY
4/63  0-1 FT

> 1-1 goal 30/63  16-8-6 <> away teams won 20%

> 0-2 29/63  1-3-25 <> away teams won 86%

 

 

In La Liga in 2013-2014  there were 59 games that had an early away goal event ( first goal of the game 0-20 minutes by the away team ) , 71%  ended over 2.5 goals, 51% ended over 3.5 goals and 59%  ended over 1,5 goals in the first half with both teams scoring in 66%.

The away teams won 56%, 22% ended a DRAW and the home teams won 22%

In La Liga 2014-2015 season there were 59 games ( SNAP ) that had an early away goal event ( first goal of the game 0-20 minutes by the away team ) 78% ended over 2.5 goals, 52.5% ended over 3.5 goals and 73% ended over 1.5 goals in the first half with both teams scoring in 78%.

The away teams won 49%, 24% ended a draw and the home teams won 27%

1-1 half time added to the early away goal metric La Liga 2013-2014 > 93% over 2.5 goals with 7% ending a DRAW

1-1 half time added to the early away goal metric La Liga 2014-2015 > 83% over 2.5 goals with 25% ending a DRAW

 

Half  Time Summary ( 1-1 ) prices offered were 15/4 6/4 5/4 < if we look at the early away goal < opening goal by away team in La Liga 0-20 minutes and 1-1 half time game state ;

1. high expectation that the game will not end 1-1 < 1-1 FT is very rare in this profile in La Liga

2, lowered expectation of an away win even if the team are the perceived stronger.

Bilbao  before the game last night in games where they opened the scoring 0-20 minutes in La Liga  and we can see including the game last night that only 1/22 ended a draw with  a whopping 19/22 over 2.5 goals 

1-2 2-1 0-3 1-3 1-2 2-1 0-3 1-2 1-5 0-1 3-1 0-1 1-2 3-2 0-1 4-1 1-2 2-1 2-1 1-2 4-1  2-2

04/10/09 PRD Real Valladolid
2 – 2
Athletic Club
0 – 1
9′ Susaeta
Diego Costa 60′
1 – 1
Nivaldo 75′
2 – 1
2 – 2
77′ Muniain

 Summary 

How does the time of the opening goal in an individual league added to the current score ( game state ) effect expectation of a game ending a draw ?