Gillingham V Walsall Review Via GAME STATE ANALYSIS and the 2nd Half Fightback Metric
Walsall last 44 away games in league 1 when losing 1-0 half time ( game state ) and they won 0/44
If you want to access half time data quickly > Simplesoccerstats site > ideas > league > select home or away team > all ( to provide data since 08-09 ) > Select HT score and all the data will appear in an instant .
What is ” Game State Analysis ” ?
Expectation of a goal is dependent on the current score ( game state ) added to the effect of the time of the opening goal as time decays in a game.
Second half fightback metric
I define the 2nd half fightback metric as 1-0 HT / 0-1 HT > 1-1 PATHWAY with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 time band.
How does the 2nd half fightback ( away ) as defined above effect expectation of goal production in league 1 ?
In the table below I have added the 13 games since 2008-2009 where Walsall were away in league 1 and they were losing 1-0 half time added to the fightback ( 1-1 ) with the 2nd goal scored by Walsall in the 46-70 minutes time band;
7-6-0 <> Walsall won 0%
At 1-1 last night in the game V Gillingham , Walsall were offered at 3/1 which you should have instantly defined as perceived poor value .
|Gillingham||Walsall||25||1 0||A59||1 1|
|Swindon||Walsall||17||1 0||A61||2 1|
|Port Vale||Walsall||25||1 0||A59||1 1|
|Stevenage||Walsall||35||1 0||A46||3 2|
|Coventry||Walsall||22||1 0||A54||2 1|
|Sheff UTD||Walsall||45||1 0||A47||1 1|
|Stevenage||Walsall||24||1 0||A59||3 1|
|County||Walsall||38||1 0||A61||2 1|
|Dagenham||Walsall||26||1 0||A50||1 1|
|Stockport||Walsall||19||1 0||A47||1 1|
|Brentford||Walsall||11||1 0||A68||1 1|
|Tranmere||Walsall||42||1 0||A54||2 1|
|Hudd.||Walsall||26||1 0||A49||2 1|