Gillingham V Walsall Review Via GAME STATE ANALYSIS and the 2nd Half Fightback Metric

Posted on: October 19th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

Walsall last 44 away games in league 1 when losing 1-0 half time ( game state ) and they won 0/44 

If you want to access half time data quickly > Simplesoccerstats site > ideas > league > select home or away team > all ( to provide data since 08-09 ) > Select HT score and all the data will appear in an instant .

What is ” Game State Analysis ” ?

Expectation of a goal is dependent on the current score ( game state ) added to the effect of the time of the opening goal as time decays in a game.

Second half fightback metric 

I define the 2nd half fightback metric as 1-0 HT / 0-1 HT > 1-1 PATHWAY with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 time band.

How does the 2nd half fightback ( away ) as defined above effect expectation of goal production in league 1 ?

http://www.sotdoc.co.uk/the-effect-of-the-second-half-fightback-by-the-away-team-in-league-1-via-game-pathway-analysis/

In the table below I have added the 13 games since 2008-2009 where Walsall were away in league 1 and they were losing 1-0 half time added to the fightback ( 1-1 ) with the 2nd goal scored by Walsall in the 46-70 minutes time band;

7-6-0 <> Walsall won 0%

At 1-1 last night in the game V Gillingham , Walsall were offered at 3/1 which you should have instantly defined as perceived poor value .

 

 

T HT T+1 FT
Gillingham Walsall 25 1 0 A59 1 1
Swindon Walsall 17 1 0 A61 2 1
Port Vale Walsall 25 1 0 A59 1 1
Stevenage Walsall 35 1 0 A46 3 2
Coventry Walsall 22 1 0 A54 2 1
Sheff UTD Walsall 45 1 0 A47 1 1
Stevenage Walsall 24 1 0 A59 3 1
County Walsall 38 1 0 A61 2 1
Dagenham Walsall 26 1 0 A50 1 1
Stockport Walsall 19 1 0 A47 1 1
Brentford Walsall 11 1 0 A68 1 1
Tranmere Walsall 42 1 0 A54 2 1
Hudd. Walsall 26 1 0 A49 2 1