Fiorentina V Sampdoria In Play Betting Review Via the Effect of the 2nd Half AWAY “FIGHTBACK ” Metric in Serie A

Posted on: November 7th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

In the table below I have added the last 150  games in Serie A where the home team were winning 1-0 at Half Time added to the away fightback > 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 time band , 68% ( 1.47 )  ended over 2.5 goals and 33% ( 3.00 )  ended over 3.5 goals .

At 1-1 on 57 minutes in the game between Fiorentina and Sampdoria over 2.5 was offered at 1.33 and over 3.5 was offered at 2.2 and we can see that the betting industry in play algorithm(s) over estimated expectation of  further goal(s)  production .

If we look at the games in the table below that were still 1-1 on 57 minutes > FT > 1-1 1-3 2-1 3-1 1-2 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-2 2-2 2-1 2-1 1-2 1-2 1-3 3-1 1-1 2-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 2-1 1-3 1-1 1-2 2-1 2-1 1-1 1-1 3-3 2-1 3-2 2-1 2-2 1-3 1-2 2-1 1-2 2-2 1-2 1-2 1-1 1-1 2-1 1-1 2-1 1-1 1-1 1-2 1-1 1-3 3-2 1-1 2-1 2-1 1-3 2-1 1-1 1-1 1-2 1-2 3-2 2-1 1-1 1-1 3-1 1-1 1-2 2-2  <> 22-31-19 <> the home teams won 31% ( 9/4) with 43% ended a draw and 26% away wins , 64% ( 4/7 ) ended over 2.5 goals and 24% ended over 3.5 goals ( 3/1 + )

Fiorentina at 1-1 were offered at 10/11 and we can see that this offer was not offering perceived value .

In the 150 games in the table below , 32% ended a home win,  41% ended a draw and the away teams won 27%

 

 

T T ( 1-1) FT T+2
Fiorentina Sampdoria 37 57 1 1
Inter Torino 35 63 2 1 88
Sassuolo Roma 12 57 1 3 76
Atalanta Inter 10 50 2 1 88
Crotone Palermo 23 66 1 1
Napoli Bologna 14 56 3 1 67
Crotone Genoa 34 51 1 3 55
Milan Torino 38 48 3 2 50
Juventus Fiorentina 37 70 2 1 75
Palermo Verona 28 48 3 2 51
Fiorentina Sassuolo 10 55 3 1 57
Inter Torino 17 55 1 2 73
Chievo Empoli 7 47 1 1
Roma Verona 41 61 1 1
Roma Milan 4 50 1 1
Frosinone Milan 19 50 2 4 55
Genoa Carpi 8 57 1 2 80
Bologna Roma 14 52 2 2 72
Juventus Torino 19 51 2 1 90
Milan Sassuolo 31 53 2 1 86
Carpi Bologna 24 47 1 2 90
Bologna Udinese 31 61 1 2 85
Verona Lazio 33 63 1 2 86
Empoli Chievo 7 55 1 3 60
Frosinone Torino 7 59 1 2 64
Juventus Napoli 13 50 3 1 77
Genoa Torino 18 61 5 1 69
Inter Roma 15 63 2 1 88
Sassuolo Torino 45 58 1 1
Atalanta Sassuolo 42 59 2 1 63
Genoa Udinese 19 68 1 1
Udinese Fiorentina 15 50 2 2 53
Milan Cagliari 21 47 3 1 49
Atalanta Sampdoria 16 68 1 2 81
Milan Empoli 40 68 1 1
Genoa Fiorentina 14 54 1 1
Napoli Genoa 7 56 2 1 75
Fiorentina Roma 19 49 1 1
Sampdoria Palermo 6 48 1 1
Palermo Roma 2 54 1 1
Verona Parma 39 63 3 1 72
Juventus Inter 5 64 1 1
Fiorentina Empoli 44 57 1 1
Juventus Sampdoria 12 51 1 1
inter Udinese 44 60 1 2 71
AC Milan Inter 23 61 1 1
Cagliari Genoa 17 53 1 1
Milan Fiorentina 25 64 1 1
Lazio Torino 15 53 2 1 60
Palermo Cesena 33 61 2 1 90
Chievo Parma 4 65 2 3 75
Parma Roma 39 47 1 3 70
Livorno Cagliari 23 53 1 1
Chievo Juventus 28 47 1 2 65
Sampdoria Torino 41 66 2 2 76
Atalanta Lazio 41 53 2 1 84
Genoa Chievo 22 47 2 1 51
Sampdoria Sassuolo 19 49 3 4 52
Cagliari Torino 43 52 2 1 88
Bologna Inter 12 51 1 1
Sampdoria Parma 44 64 1 1
Udinese Lazio 8 62 2 3 68
Bologna Napoli 37 62 2 2 80
Lazio Juventus 27 60 1 1
Verona Torino 36 49 1 3 53
Roma Torino 41 52 2 1 52
Sassuolo Cagliari 36 47 1 1
Catania Sampdoria 45 61 2 1 61
Lazio Torino 42 52 3 3 61
Sampdoria Siena 45 62 2 1 68
Genoa Juventus 18 61 1 3 78
Udinese Milan 40 54 2 1 68
Roma Sampdoria 35 62 1 1
Chievo Sampdoria 45 61 2 1 87
Udinese Catania 29 62 2 2 86
Juventus Inter 1 59 1 3 76
Genoa Napoli 23 54 2 4 56
Atalanta Inter 9 56 3 2 60
Udinese Parma 9 46 2 2 50
Catania Milan 11 53 1 3 56
Siena Roma 25 63 1 3 86
Bologna Atalanta 16 50 2 1 70
Fiorentina Sampdoria 28 48 2 2 72
Siena Catania 10 50 1 3 67
Juventus Sampdoria 24 52 1 2 68
Milan Udinese 25 55 2 1 90
Cagliari Torino 37 47 4 3 54
Palermo Siena 44 51 1 2 72
Fiorentina Genoa 33 58 3 2 62
Inter Atalanta 44 56 3 4 57
Bologna Sampdoria 23 59 1 1
Sampdoria Catania 36 68 1 1
Roma Napoli 41 49 2 2 68
Palermo Parma 6 54 1 2 70
Milan Fiorentina 31 47 1 2 89
Chievo Siena 9 51 1 1
Atalanta Parma 5 55 1 1
Parma Fiorentina 28 61 2 2 71
Bologna Juventus 17 59 1 1
Juventus Udinese 42 56 2 1 62
Juventus Cagliari 7 48 1 1
Genoa Bologna 39 51 2 1 85
Pama Lecce 18 58 3 3 61
Roma Juventus 6 61 1 1
Lazio Catania 17 63 1 1
Juventus Fiorentina 13 58 2 1 65
Catania Juventus 22 49 1 1
Cesena Lazio 15 48 1 2 54
Juventus Bologna 29 52 1 1
Lazio Genoa 1 54 1 2 72
Fiorentina Bologna 20 50 1 1
Genoa Sampdoria 45 66 2 1 90
Cagliari Brescia 22 61 1 1
Parma Napoli 29 52 1 3 58
Bologna Cagliari 29 59 2 2 83
Catania Lecce 45 56 3 2 61
Lazio Chievo 45 64 1 1
Parma Fiorentina 15 49 1 1
Juventus Bari 43 57 2 1 79
Catania Chievo 29 65 1 1
Bologna Fiorentina 5 67 1 1
Lazio Udinese 2 49 3 2 52
Bologna Chievo 40 49 2 1 90
Lecce Genoa 45 55 1 3 76
Brescia Cagliari 20 63 1 2 66
Palermo Catania 33 46 3 1 47
Milan Palermo 19 63 3 1 77
Genoa Bari 36 52 2 1 90
Lecce Parma 31 69 1 1
Palermo Inter 28 62 1 2 70
Bologna Catania 15 51 1 1
Catania Juventus 24 52 1 1
Roma Sampdoria 14 52 1 2 85
Lazio Roma 14 53 1 2 63
Catania Siena 11 49 2 2 49
Napoli Parma 3 63 2 3 68
Roma Inter 17 66 2 1 72
Udinese Palermo 43 51 3 2 65
Chievo Cagliari 33 51 2 1 78
Milan Livorno 44 53 1 1
Livorno Genoa 21 63 2 1 90
Palermo Catania 4 55 1 1
Fiorentina Catania 4 48 3 1 69
Genoa Fiorentina 43 63 2 1 73
Cagliari Inter 16 51 1 2 55
Catania Lazio 12 57 1 1
Bologna Fiorentina 24 64 1 1
Napoli Torino 42 51 1 2 72
Reggina Juventus 27 48 2 2 69
Reggina Napoli 27 64 1 1