Everton Shot Data / Chance Creation at Bournemouth . Do Teams that Concede the opening Goal score more goals ?”

Posted on: September 25th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

” teams score more goals when they are being led but fewer goals when they are leading,” < You Probably backed Everton double chance at half time ( 1-0 HT )

Last 100 games in the Premier League where the home team opened the scoring in the 21-30 minutes time band and 1-0 Half Time <> 71-26-3 < You probably back Bournemouth + 0.25 on the asian handicap ( 1-0 ) .

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1. Bournemouth pressed high when not in possession

2. When Bournemouth attacked they kept their shape at the back and did not attack in numbers

3. When Everton attacked they were too slow to recycle possession and could not break the shape of Bournemouth

 

Bournemouth won the majority of the secondary balls and Everton had Zero shots on target in the second half with only one good chance above where Valencia failed to make a good enough contact with the ball ( should have scored = near miss in my opinion as under no pressure when the ball came to him )

Summary

I have watched a number of games where the home team opened the scoring 21-30 minutes and 1-0 HT and in general you will see a very similar pattern in the 2nd half which is expectation of lowered accuracy by the away team

http://www.sotdoc.co.uk/score-effects-do-trailing-teams-outshoot-their-opponents/

 

Do Trailing Teams outshoot their opponents ?

YES BUT THE BIG BUT is that you need to look at how accurate the shots are in terms of expectation of the shots/chances ending in the onion bag   goal

If you are using dangerous attack data supplied to BET365 via a company called running ball to trigger in play bets without factoring the effect of the time of the opening goal added to the effect of game state ( current score ) then the data will be as useful as a chocolate teapot.