Eiche V Valladolid In Play Betting Review Via the Effect of the Early Home Goal and 1-0 Half Time Game State in Spain Segunda

Posted on: November 12th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

Eiche at half time were offered  @4/9 and Eiche to score the 2nd goal @13/8 , no second goal @12/5 and Valladolid to score the second goal @13/10 ( 1-0 HT ) and the key point is to define if the prices were in line with expectation as a result of the first half events .

In the table below I have added the last 34 games in Spain Segunda where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band and 1-0 half time ;

29-4-1 <> the home teams won 85% > 1/0.85 = 1.18 and it is certainly acceptable to conclude that the offer re Eiche to win @1.44 at half time was perceived value .

GAME PATHWAY 

6/34 1-0 FT > 18% 1/0.18 = 9/2 < what is clear is that the betting industry algorithm did not factor the effect of the opening goal in this game as it over estimated the game ending 1-0 FT because no second goal was offered @12/5

19/34 > 2-0 <>  19-0-0 > is a 2-0 lead ” PRECARIOUS ” ? <> home teams won 100%

9/34 >  1-1 <>  4-4 -1  <.> home teams won 44%

Valladolid were offered at 13/10 to score the 2nd goal at half time ( 1-0 HT ) and we can see that this was out of line with expectation because in the sample below the away team scored the second goal in 26% , 1/0.26 = 11/4 +

Eiche were offered @13/8 to score the second goal at HT and we can see that this was also out of line with expectation because in the sample below the home team scored  the second goal in 56% , 1/0.56 = 4/5

 

Summary 

How does the time of the opening goal in an individual league added to the current score ( game state ) effect the accuracy of both teams as time decays ?

 

 

T T+1 HT FT
Eiche Valladolid 2 H79 1 0 2 0
Zara Alco 3 H54 1 0 2 0
Córdoba Levante 10 1 0 1 0
Eiche Tenerife 3 H69 1 0 3 1
Almería Mirandes 8 A51 1 0 2 1
Valladolid Albacete 8 1 0 1 0
Oviedo Mirandes 5 H52 1 0 4 1
Ponf Huesca 6 A47 1 0 2 1
Albacete Ponf. 7 A52 1 0 2 2
Almería Numancia 5 A90 1 0 1 1
Lugo Alaves 9 1 0 1 0
Llagostera Valladolid 2 A55 1 0 3 1
Oviedo Alcorcon 10 H64 1 0 3 2
Alaves Osasuna 8 H70 1 0 3 0
Numancia Ponf. 9 1 0 1 0
Mirandés Mallorca 7 H90 1 0 2 0
Alcorcón Numancia 8 A76 1 0 1 1
Osasuna Mirandes 2 H80 1 0 2 0
Girona Osasuna 9 H60 1 0 3 0
Osasuna Albacete 2 A54 1 0 2 1
Las Palamas Girona 3 H67 1 0 2 0
Ponf. Valladolid 9 H53 1 0 2 0
Alaves Osasuna 7 H54 1 0 3 0
Liagostera Barca 10 1 0 1 0
Numancia Sabadell 4 H53 1 0 3 0
Gijon Betis 5 A52 1 0 1 2
Albacete Lugo 1 H75 1 0 3 0
Betis Santander 3 H90 1 0 2 0
Las Palmas Albacete 7 H56 1 0 2 1
Gijon Osasuna 4 H89 1 0 2 0
Mirandés Numancia 9 H80 1 0 2 0
Valladolid Tenerife 3 H66 1 0 2 1
Tenerife Mirandes 7 1 0 1 0
Leganes Alaves 8 A69 1 0 1 1

 

7/34 followed the pathway > 1-1 with the second goal in the 46-70 time band = 21%