Do you Love Betting on Goals in games involving Nottingham Forest, Newcastle, Morecambe, and Walsall when they play at Home ?

Posted on: October 13th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

If you are having a flutter this weekend then it is possible that you will be backing goals in the following games  Forest  V Birmingham, Newcastle v Brentford, Morecambe V Stevenage,  and Walsall v Shrewsbury .

The prices offered for over 2.5 goals in the respective games are 10/11, 8/11, 4/5, Evens and the key point is to understand if the prices offered are value or not ?

One method of pricing expectation of goal production in a game is to estimate the shot on target production of a team before the game starts and multiple that by the estimated accuracy during the game ;

for example if you betting model estimates that Nottingham Forest will produce a total shot on target production of 5 and have a conversion rate of 30% > 5*30/100 = 1.5 goals.

The flaw with all betting models that uses  shot data to predict expectation of total goal production is that although shot on target production is likely to be in a narrow range , accuracy will vary on the basis that expectation of a goal is dependent on the current score ( game state ) added to the time of the opening goal which is impossible to predict before a game starts although you will be able to react to the events that unfold in play.

If we look at the table below in games where either the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band or the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band > FT >

4-3  0-3  1-5  2-0 1-4 3-3  3-1 <> average goal production is 4.71 

In probability theory and statistics, a Markov chain or Markoff chain, named after the Russian mathematician Andrey Markov, is a stochastic process that satisfies the Markov property (usually characterized as “memorylessness”). Loosely speaking, a process satisfies the Markov property if one can make predictions for the future of the process based solely on its present state just as well as one could knowing the process’s full history. i.e., conditional on the present state of the system, its future and past are independent.[

In basic terms if you bet on goals in games because you have seen a high goal production in previous games then you should be aware that ;

1. an early goal in football is  in general likely to provide expectation of acceleration of goal production although you will find games where an early goal can actually impede expectation of goal production as time decays .

2. If you are looking at a sample of games with a high goal production then do not assume that the ” trend” will continue unless they all have a common factor which would be the early goal metric .

 

Forest 1 1 H60 1 2 H40 3 1 H16 4 3 H6 4 3 H23 4.6
Newcastle 4 3 H24 0 2 A29 2 0 H15 4 1 H20 1 2 A45 3.8
Morecambe 0 3 A15 2 3 A72 1 5 A4 1 2 A27 2 0 H10 2 1 A23 3.67
Walsall 2 1 H17 1 4 A11 1 0 H25 3 3 H6 1 2 A42 3 1 H7 3.67