Did you Back Forest Green to Win At Odds On In Play ? The Effect of the Early Home Goal in the National League and 1-1 Pathway in the First Half ; Should we consider the perceived strength of a team in play ?

Posted on: January 1st, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark

In the table below I have added the last 22 games in the National League where the home teams opened the scoring in the 0-10 minute time band > 1-1 pathway in the first half ;

5-9-8 <> the home teams won 20% < 1/0.23 = 7/2 68% of the games in the table below were games where the home team were defined as the perceived stronger team and had a shorter closing price then the away team and in that sample the home team won 20% ( Forest Green were offered at 4/9 at 1-1 ) If you are betting in play and triggering bets because you consider a team to be the perceived stronger , I would advise accepting that the perceived strength of a team can be weakened /strengthened via variables that may occur during a game which you should factor into your betting patterns . footnote : closing prices added for each game T T+1 HT FT H D A Forest Green Torquay 4 14 2 3 5 5 30/100 207/50 87/10 Lincoln Tranmere 3 29 1 1 2 1 147/100 223/100 181/100 Forest Green Tranmere 3 4 2 1 2 2 23/20 227/100 120/50 Braintree Bromley 3 7 1 1 2 2 60/50 239/100 54/25 Aldershot Tranmere 3 36 1 1 3 1 217/100 111/50 32/25 Southport Kiddy 5 9 1 2 3 4 99/100 51/20 259/100 Aldershot Southport 9 18 1 2 1 2 73/50 117/50 179/100 Guiseley Grimsby 6 19 1 1 2 2 229/50 143/50 30/50 Grimsby Woking 4 34 3 1 3 1 50/100 33/10 12725 Altrincham Lincoln 3 7 2 2 3 3 93/50 47/20 141/100 Bromley Grimsby 6 32 1 1 1 2 411/100 73/25 63/100 Eastleigh Wrexham 10 18 1 1 1 1 133/100 239/100 97/50 Eastleigh Aldershot 8 26 1 1 1 1 30/50 299/100 109/25 Dover Bromley 8 37 1 1 2 3 17/25 149/50 357/100 Tranmere Braintree 3 5 1 2 1 2 23/25 237/100 309/100 Eastleigh Forest G. 2 21 1 2 3 2 37/20 121/50 27/20 Welling Bromley 4 25 1 1 1 2 87/50 117/50 151/100 Lincoln Altrincham 8 17 1 1 1 1 57/100 157/50 111/25 Torquay Bromley 5 8 2 3 3 7 23/20 253/100 110/50 Welling Torquay 9 20 1 1 1 1 38/25 237/100 169/100 Forest Green Bromley 6 7 2 1 2 1 13/25 160/50 50/10 Welling Braintree 6 14 1 1 1 2 101/50 237/100 133/100