Did you back Bayern Munich at Half Time @1/2 ? The Effect of the Early Home Goal and 1-1 Half Time Game State in Bundesliga

Posted on: February 5th, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark

In the table below I have added all the games in Bundesliga since 2010-2012 where the home team opened the scoring 0-10 and 1-1 half time and I have added the shot on target data from the 2012-2013 season

11-20-15 <> the home teams won 24% , 1/0.24= 4.17 > and at half time Bayern Munich were offered at 1.5

TRADING STRATEGY

Back against the home team in the Bundesliga ( lay ) at half time in games where the home team open the scoring 0-10 minutes and 1-1 half time and hedge with a cover of the correct score 2-1 to the home team .

If you followed the above strategy in the table below then you would have won 42/46 TRADES = 91%

Summary

In Bundesliga in games where the home team open the scoring 0-10 minutes and 1-1 half time , there will be expectation that although it is likely that the home shot on target average will be higher then the away team in the second half , it is also likely that the away team will be more accurate in the second half.

First Half SOT 2nd half SOT T FT
2016/2017
Leipzig Schalke 3 3 2 2 H2 2 1
Freiburg Bayern 2 2 1 3 H4 1 2
Wolfsburg Augsburg 3 4 2 1 H4 1 2
Bayern Schalke 2 2 2 1 H9 1 1
2015/2016
Hertha Bremen 1 1 1 2 H6 1 1
Hoffenheim Bayern M. 1 4 0 5 H1 1 2
Köln Ingolstadt 3 4 1 1 H10 1 1
Hertha Leverkusen 2 2 2 0 H7 2 1
Hannover Darmsatdt 3 2 2 3 H10 1 2
Schalke Bremen 2 1 2 5 H4 1 3
Ingolstadt Stuttgart 4 3 4 3 H4 3 3
Hertha Hannover 2 2 6 1 H4 2 2
Stuttgart Mainz 2 3 1 7 H6 1 3
2014/2015
Mainz Bremen 2 4 1 3 H3 1 2
Monch Hertha 4 1 6 2 H9 3 2
Dortmund Wolfsburg 2 2 4 2 H8 2 2
Wolfsburg Hertha 1 2 4 0 H10 2 1
Augsburg Stuttgart 2 5 2 2 H7 2 1
Schalke Stuttgart 2 2 4 5 H9 3 2
Wolfsburg Dortmund 4 3 4 1 H1 2 1
Paderborn Stuttgart 2 2 3 1 H4 1 2
2013/2014
Freiburg Hertha 1 2 1 2 H6 1 1
Stuttgart Bremen 3 2 3 0 H5 1 1
Stuttgart Nunrberg 2 3 2 3 H3 1 1
Hertha Nurnberg 4 1 0 3 H4 1 3
Broussia M. Augsburg 4 3 4 1 H5 1 2
Augsburg Schalke 2 3 1 1 H5 1 2
Mainz Hamburg 1 4 5 3 H8 3 2
2012/2013
Hoffenheim Greuter F. 2 4 9 4 H8 3 3
Greuther F. Bremen 2 5 1 3 H8 1 1
Fortuna D Hoffenheim 1 1 2 1 H4 1 1
Broussia M. Stuttgart 5 2 0 4 H7 1 2
Augsburg Freiburg 1 2 3 1 H9 1 1
Mainz Hannover 2 2 1 2 H10 2 1
Mainz Wolfsburg 1 2 1 1 H5 1 1
Fortuna D Mainz 2 2 1 1 H6 1 1
Greuther F. Eintracht F. 2 2 3 2 H2 2 3
Fortuna D Bremen 1 2 2 2 H2 2 2
2011/2012
Augsburg Kaiser. H5 2 2
Augsburg Schalke H6 1 1
Bayern Augsburg H1 2 1
Hoffenheim Mainz H9 1 1
Kaiser. Hertha H5 1 1
Leverkusen Kaiser. H1 3 1
Schalke Dortmund H9 1 2
Stuttgart Bayern M. H6 1 2