Chesterfield V Gillingham In Play Betting Review Via Conceding the Opening Goal Data and Early Goal Data and Analysis

Posted on: September 28th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

Group A > Have access to only Conceding data > Chesterfield opened the scoring on 2 minutes ;

4/7  3/1  8/1  and over 3.5 was offered at 5/6

Gillingham last 20 away in League 1 when conceding the opening goal 

2-3 5-0 1-3 2-1 1-1 1-1 2-1 1-0 1-3 2-2 4-1 2-0 2-1 1-2 2-2 3-3 3-0 2-2 3-1 2-1

10-6-4  Gillingham lost 50% and 16/20 ended with Gillingham scoring 

Group A are feeling confident that Gillingham will score and think that the price of Chesterfield is too short @4/7 ( 1-0 ) because they have expectation that Gillingham will ” retrieve” the deficit so the group decide to back against ( lay Chesterfield ).

 

Group B > Have  access to early goal data >

Gillingham away in league 1 when conceding the opening goal  in the 0-10 minutes time band ;

5-0 2-1 2-1 1-2 3-0 1-0 1-0 3-1 5-1 1-1 4-1 2-1 4-0 4-0 3-1 4-2  <> 14-1-1 <> Gillingham lost 87.5% with 81% over 2.5 goals 

At 1-0 given the time of the opening goal  , Group B are seeing lowered expectation re a Gillingham fightback ( retrieval of the one goal deficit )

 

Chesterfield at home in league 1 when opening the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band ;

3-1 3-1 3-0 1-2  6-0 3-0 3-2 1-1 2-2 4-1 <> 7-2-1 <> Chesterfield won 70%

 

Last  season in League 1 where the home teams opened the scoring 0-10, 71% home wins,  20% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 9%

 

Both teams scored in  54%  and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in  63%

65% ended over 2.5 goals

41% Big Grin  produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes 

 

GAME PATHWAY

2/68 1-0 FT

21/68 > 1-1 5-11-5 <> home teams won  24%

45/68 > 2-0  41-3-1 <> home teams won  91%

 

Group B are looking at the price of Chesterfield at 1-0 ( 4/7 ) and believe that there is around 70% expectation of a home win ( 4/9 ) and in effect the price offered was of some value .

 

Chesterfield 1-0 Half Time  (  1/2 3/1 13/2 )

 
In the table below I have added the last 60 games in League 1 where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band and the half time score was 1-0, 68% ended a home win , 24% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 8%

Both teams scored in 55% and over 2.5 goals was landed in 40%

20% of the games in the table below followed the pathway 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 minutes time band and in that sample 33% ended 1-1 .

The away teams in the table below scored the second goal of the game in 37%

 

1/0.68 = 1.47 and Chesterfield were offered at 1/2 at half time so there was no perceived value at half time if you backed Chesterfield 

 

” A 2-0 lead is precarious ” > a chap who does commentary on sky sports etc advises in every game where there is a 2 goal lead that ” a 2-0 lead is precarious ” although in the Burnley V Watford game after advising that ” 2-0 lead is precarious ” they also added that Burnley were good when taking a 2 goal advantage as they held on against Liverpool .

Last season in League 1 in games where the home team opened the scoring 0-10 minutes > 2-0 pathway >  91% ended in a home win.

An area which is of great interest is the effect of the early goal metric in terms of higher expectation of a goal(s) 80 + minutes then in games that do not produce an early goal metric .

Summary 

Group B painted a much more comprehensive picture of the expected outcome of the game as time decayed in the game and although Group A won their bet ( layed Chesterfield ) , in the long run I would rather be in Group B for the simple reason that conceding data without factoring the time of the opening goal is very limited.