Championship Game State Analysis 0-1 at 20 minutes Via @PeteNordsted

Posted on: March 10th, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark

Continuing our series I have now taken a look at the Championship when the home side have conceded a goal between 0-20 minutes and the score at 20 minutes is 0-1

When comparing this to the Premier League and the MLS there are a number of interestring trends.

Firstly I would not be expercting a goal rush. If we look aty the Premier League and MLS over 3.5 goals was seen in 44% and 43% of the matches respectively. However, in the Championship this has only been seen in 34% of the matches.

Also to be noted that in less than 50% of the matches the home side scored next.

Another significant trend is that 27% of the matches finished level. This is quite a difference from 22% in both the Premier League & MLS < SotDoc Response > if you look at 0-1 HT goal 0-20 minutes in the Championship you will see lowered expectation of the away team winning the 2nd half which will result in some draw bias as < 1-1 pathway will be more likely then > 0-2 pathway.

When looking at the First half there are 4 sides that have recorded double figures on matches that recorded 2 goals in the first half. These are Ipswich with 13 from 22. Nottingham Forest with 18 from 25. Sheffield Wednesday with 13 from 18 and Huddersfield with 14 from 22.

If we remove these 4 sides then 2 or more goals in the first half has been seen in just under 43% of matches.

With Both teams scoring in 73% of the matches then after the 20 minute mark the stats suggest that the most probable outcome is either a 1-1 or 1-2 score line.

In summary if seeing an early away goal and the score is 0-1 after 20 minutes it may be worth trading the unders goal line.

Game State Analysis Table 0-1 on 20 Minutes

SN = Scored Next

CN = Conceded Next

NG = No Further Goals

BS = Both Teams Scored

Team Matches W D L PPG SN CN NG BS O2.5 O3.5 HT O1.5
Derby 20 7 4 9 1.25 10 7 3 12 13 7 9
Ipswich 22 7 4 11 1.14 12 9 1 15 15 7 13
Cardiff 12 3 4 5 1.08 8 3 1 9 7 3 5
N Forest 25 7 6 12 1.08 13 11 3 20 21 13 18
Norwich 4 1 1 2 1.00 1 1 2 2 2 2 2
Fulham 16 3 7 6 1.00 8 6 2 13 10 7 7
QPR 9 2 3 4 1.00 6 3 0 8 7 5 6
Sheff Wed 18 4 6 8 1.00 10 7 1 17 13 7 13
Newcastle 1 0 1 0 1.00 0 1 0 1 1 1 1
Brighton 17 2 10 5 0.94 9 5 3 13 9 5 7
Blackburn 13 2 6 5 0.92 8 3 2 11 6 4 7
Preston 6 1 2 3 0.83 4 1 1 5 3 2 2
Wigan 9 2 1 6 0.78 4 2 3 5 5 1 2
Barnsley 16 2 5 9 0.69 8 6 2 12 9 4 8
Rotherham 5 1 0 4 0.60 2 2 1 4 4 1 2
Reading 15 2 3 10 0.60 6 7 2 8 7 2 6
Huddersfield 22 3 3 16 0.55 11 9 2 16 16 11 14
Bristol City 14 1 4 9 0.50 6 6 2 8 8 5 4
Brentford 8 1 1 6 0.50 4 4 0 8 7 3 4
Leeds 19 0 8 11 0.42 9 8 2 13 9 4 9
Birmingham 22 2 3 17 0.41 6 11 5 12 13 9 7
Wolves 11 1 1 9 0.36 4 7 0 8 8 2 5
A Villa 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Burton 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 304 54 83 167 149 119 38 220 193 105 151
Percentage 17.76 27.30 54.93 49.01 39.14 12.50 72.37 63.49 34.54 49.67
Odds 5.63 3.66 1.82 2.04 2.55 8.00 1.38 1.58 2.90 2.01