Championship 0-1 HT : Opening Goal in the 0-20 minutes Time Band ; Game Pathway Analysis

Posted on: March 11th, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark

In the table below I have added the last 180 games in the Championship where the away team were winning 1-0 at half time added to the opening goal in the 0-20 minutes time band and 44% ended over 2.5 goals

Game Pathway

0-1 FT<> 39/180

> 1-1 <> 86/180

> 0-2 <> 55/180

> 1-1 pathway will be far more likely then > 0-2 pathway and as a result we will see some draw bias in this profile.

21-51-108 < the away teams won 60% and 28% ended a draw.

Both teams scored in 62%

In games in the table below where there was a home fightback in the 46-70 minutes time band > 1-3 1-2 2-1 2-1 2-2 1-2 3-1 1-5 1-3 2-1 1-1 1-2 1-1 2-1 1-2 1-1 2-1 2-1 2-2 1-1 2-2 1-1 2-2 1-1 2-1 3-2 2-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 2-2 2-2 1-1 2-2 2-1 1-1 5-1 1-1 2-1 1-1 1-1 1-3 2-2 1-1 1-1 1-2 1-1 2-1 1-2 2-1 2-3 2-2 1-2 1-1 1-1 2-1 1-3 1-3 < 67% ended over 2.5 goals 16-28-14 < 48% ended a draw > no home bias

The away teams won the second half of the games in the table below in only 21% for the simple reason that in this profile in the Championship > the pathway > 1-1 will be more likely then > 0-2 and if the game does > 0-2 pathway then we will see lowered expectation of the game ending 0-2 ( 11% of the games in the table below ended 0-2 )

Summary

How does the time of the opening goal added to the current score ( game state ) effect accuracy as time decays in a game ?

In the Championship in games that are 0-1 half time added to the early away goal metric and there will be lowered expectation of the away team winning the second half and the most likely full time outcome in this profile will be 0-1,1-1 and 1-2

T HT FT T+1 T+2
Forest Brentford 17 0 1 2 3 A55 A68
Fulham Leeds 5 0 1 1 1 H90
Birmingham Wigan 19 0 1 0 1
Birmingham Leeds 14 0 1 1 3 H63 A67
Barnsley Hudd 18 0 1 1 1 H75
Bristol City Fulham 17 0 1 0 2 A54
Birmingham QPR 18 0 1 1 4 A47 A84
Preston Ipswich 16 0 1 1 1 H89
QPR Burton 11 0 1 1 2 A52 H63
Brentford Newcastle 20 0 1 1 2 H52 A79
Blackburn Brighton 16 0 1 2 3 A61 H66
Cardiff Wolves 2 0 1 2 1 H68 H86
Wigan Derby 16 0 1 0 1
Brentford Birmingham 14 0 1 1 2 A63 H77
Brighton Fulham 18 0 1 2 1 H52 H79
Fulham Wed 10 0 1 1 1 H90
Brighton Preston 10 0 1 2 2 H54 H65
Wolves Norwich 2 0 1 1 2 A73 H80
Fulham QPR 20 0 1 1 2 H47 A87
Fulham Bristol City 10 0 1 0 4 A60 A68
Derby Newcastle 20 0 1 0 2 A90
Bristol City Villa 5 0 1 3 1 H59 H61
Bristol City Newcastle 19 0 1 0 1
Hudds Brentford 1 0 1 1 5 H50 A52
Charlton Burnley 20 0 1 0 3 A49 A51
Rotherham Blackburn 6 0 1 0 1
Charlton Brighton 8 0 1 1 3 H51 A55
Cardiff Bolton 7 0 1 2 1 H55 H90
Preston Burnley 6 0 1 0 1
Birmingham Leeds 11 0 1 1 2 A50 H53
Bristol City Rotherham 12 0 1 1 1 H54
Preston Fulham 5 0 1 1 2 H63 A74
Preston QPR 5 0 1 1 1 H90
Hudds Ipswich 19 0 1 0 1
Forest Hudds 14 0 1 0 2 A84
Wolves Preston 17 0 1 1 2 A53 H66
Wed Burnley 3 0 1 1 1 H48
Reading Wed 10 0 1 1 1 H74
Blackburn Brighton 3 0 1 0 1
ipswich Leeds 1 0 1 2 1 H50 H90
MK Dons Burnley 14 0 1 0 5 A46 A64
Reading Brentford 17 0 1 1 2 H58 A72
MK Dons Ipswich 10 0 1 0 1
Birmingham Hudds 1 0 1 0 2 A81
Bolton Brentford 10 0 1 1 1 H65
Fulham Preston 11 0 1 1 1 H77
Hudds Boro 9 0 1 0 2 A84
MK Dons Hull 19 0 1 0 2 A90
Birmingham Wolves 11 0 1 0 2 A84
Fulham Reading 13 0 1 4 2 A49 H50
Wolves Brentford 17 0 1 0 2 A88
Bolton Birmingham 20 0 1 0 1
Brighton Bristol City 17 0 1 2 1 H53 H82
Rotherham Burnley 9 0 1 1 2 H75 A81
Brentford Preston 1 0 1 2 1 H62 H65
QPR Blackburn 14 0 1 2 2 H46 A60
Cardiff Hull 8 0 1 0 2 A80
Boro Bristol City 8 0 1 0 1
Huddersfield Brighton 1 0 1 1 1 H54
Derby Boro 16 0 1 1 1 H88
Blackburn Cardiff 5 0 1 1 1 H88
Burnley Birmingham 10 0 1 2 2 H51 A63
Derby Reading 2 0 1 0 3 A72 A85
Reading Brentford 7 0 1 0 2 A65
Blackpool Fulham 8 0 1 0 1
Norwich Boro 9 0 1 0 1
Fulham Rotherham 4 0 1 1 1 H67
Reading Bournemouth 4 0 1 0 1
Bolton Charlton 9 0 1 1 1 H80
Birmingham Blackburn 8 0 1 2 2 H64 A68
Bolton Blackpool 9 0 1 1 1 H90
Huddersfield Fulham 2 0 1 0 2 A90
Cardiff Bournemouth 16 0 1 1 1 H62
Norwich Wigan 8 0 1 0 1
Rotherham Millwall 20 0 1 2 1 H47 H85
Wigan Cardiff 20 0 1 0 1
Derby Sheff Wed 20 0 1 3 2 H46 A55
Ipswich Reading 14 0 1 0 1
Boro Leeds 3 0 1 0 1
Reading Wigam 17 0 1 0 1
Ipswich Sheff Wed 19 0 1 2 1 H51 H66
Huddersfield Wolves 11 0 1 1 4 A46 A60
Sheff Wed Cardiff 7 0 1 1 1 H75
Wigan Blackburn 15 0 1 1 1 H63
Leeds Birmingham 8 0 1 1 1 H86
Bolton Leeds 2 0 1 1 1 H48
Leeds Wigan 11 0 1 0 2 A83
Charlton Cardiff 12 0 1 1 1 H88
Forest Charton 10 0 1 1 1 H69
Wigan Norwich 5 0 1 0 1
Brighton Millwall 15 0 1 0 1
Wolves Brighton 10 0 1 1 1 H88
Forest Norwich 16 0 1 2 1 H85 H90
Watford Cardiff 12 0 1 0 1
Wigan ipswich 20 0 1 1 2 A63 H82
Forest Ipswich 20 0 1 2 2 H63 A71
Birmingham Bolton 20 0 1 0 1
Brighton Brough 8 0 1 1 2 A53 H88
Brentford Birmingham 16 0 1 1 1 H79
Brighton Charlton 4 0 1 2 2 H67 A75
Boro Reading 7 0 1 0 1
Cardiff Boro 2 0 1 0 1
Fulham Wolves 15 0 1 0 1
Fulham Millwall 12 0 1 0 1
Leeds Brighton 5 0 1 0 2 A84
Leeds Derby 6 0 1 1 1 H50
Birmingham Wigan 3 0 1 0 1
Barnsley Leeds 16 0 1 0 1
Millwall Watford 17 0 1 2 2 H64 A86
Barnsley Burnley 7 0 1 0 1
Blackpool Yeovil 16 0 1 1 2 A74 H78
QPR Blackpool 11 0 1 1 1 H78
Ipswich Forest 4 0 1 1 1 H78
Ipswich Derby 1 0 1 2 1 H68 H90
Bolton Brighton 14 0 1 0 2 A65
Birmingham QPR 14 0 1 0 2 A73
Reading Yeovil 20 0 1 1 1 H69
Birmingham Huddersfield 10 0 1 1 2 A60 H90
Millwall Bolton 15 0 1 1 1 H82
Reading Sheff Wed 10 0 1 0 2 A58
Wigan Charlton 4 0 1 2 1 H88 H90
Yeovil Burnley 19 0 1 1 2 A62 H80
Watford Reading 5 0 1 0 1
Millwall Leicester 6 0 1 1 3 A48 H68
Brighton Bournemouth 14 0 1 1 1 H89
Barnsley Derby 8 0 1 1 2 A49 H62
Derby Blackpool 3 0 1 5 1 H47 H53
Sheff Wed Huddersfield 11 0 1 1 2 A68 H90
Doncaster Brighton 8 0 1 1 3 H75 A85
Watford Leicester 10 0 1 0 3 A53 A86
Brighton Watford 4 0 1 1 1 H55
Blackburn Charlton 7 0 1 0 1
Wigan Blackburn 8 0 1 2 1 H69 H90
Birmingham Bolton 12 0 1 1 2 A64 H69
Charlton Forest 3 0 1 1 1 H50
Forest Boro 17 0 1 2 2 A55 H69
Bolton Leeds 6 0 1 0 1
Watford Forest 6 0 1 1 1 H54
Birmingham Watford 11 0 1 0 1
Doncaster Blackpool 16 0 1 1 3 H60 A86
Huddersfield Barnsley 14 0 1 2 2 H53 A74
Millwall Forest 8 0 1 0 1
Wolves Burnley 8 0 1 1 2 A53 H88
Cardiff Bolton 18 0 1 1 1 H68
Leeds Brighton 10 0 1 1 2 H73 A88
Sheff Wed ipswich 12 0 1 1 1 H58
Bristol City Birmingham 15 0 1 0 1
Bristol City Bolton 2 0 1 1 2 H49 A79
Leeds Peterbrough 15 0 1 1 1 H56
Huddersfield Charton 4 0 1 0 1
Watford Sheff Wed 18 0 1 2 1 H53 H63
Millwall Wolves 8 0 1 0 2 A61
Derby Palace 13 0 1 0 1
Wolves Cardiff 20 0 1 1 2 A67 H70
Leicester Charlton 19 0 1 1 2 H69 A78
Ipswich Waford 18 0 1 0 2 A72
Barnsley Wolves 7 0 1 2 1 H49 H73
Boro Barnsley 6 0 1 2 3 H50 H62
Millwall Hull 1 0 1 0 1
Peterborough Burnley 1 0 1 2 2 H65 H69
Palace Charlton 15 0 1 2 1 H74 H79
Millwall Burnley 19 0 1 0 2 A59
Blackpool Wolves 3 0 1 1 2 A72 H89
Blackburn Bolton 2 0 1 1 2 A61 H82
Derby Cardiff 11 0 1 1 1 H69
Ipswich Peterbrough 8 0 1 1 1 H60
Bristol City Charton 20 0 1 0 2 A56
Sheff Wed Blackpool 18 0 1 0 2 A83
Birmingham Ipswich 8 0 1 0 1
ipswich Sheff Wed 2 0 1 0 3 A58 A81
Barnsley Palace 11 0 1 1 1 H86
Barnsley ipswich 6 0 1 1 1 H73
Millwall Brighton 17 0 1 1 2 A50 H79
Blackburn Boro 7 0 1 1 2 A61 H89
Leicester Burnley 10 0 1 2 1 H47 H57
Burnley Brighton 18 0 1 1 3 H60 A77
Peterborough Leeds 7 0 1 1 2 A50 H73
Blackpool Leeds 16 0 1 2 1 H75 H80
ipswich Millwall 3 0 1 0 3 A63 A87
Southampton Reading 19 0 1 1 3 H48 A72