Can the Time of the Opening Goal Weaken the Perceived Strength of a Team in the Premier League ?

Posted on: November 17th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

In the last 17 games in the Premier League where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band and they were priced at 9/2 + on a betting exchange before the game started ;

7-4-6 <> the away teams won 35% > 1/0.35 = 19/10 and in this profile the away team at 1-0 will be offered at a much shorter price then  19/10.

In games in the Premier League where the home team open the scoring in the 0-10 time band and the away team are considered to be the perceived stronger team the expectation of the away team fighting back will be much lower then the market will predict and > 2-0 pathway will be just as likely as > 1-1 pathway .

 

The average goal production in the 17 games below was 3.82

 

1. Swansea lost  2-1

Swansea City
1 – 2
Liverpool
L. Fer 8′
1 – 0
1 – 1
54′ Roberto Firmino
1 – 2
84′ J. Milner (PG)

..
2. Burnley  Won 2-0

Sat 20/08/16 PRL Burnley
2 – 0
Liverpool
S. Vokes 2′
1 – 0
A. Gray 37′
2 – 0

3 Sunderland won  2-1

Sat 13/02/16 PRL Sunderland

2 – 1
Manchester United
W. Khazri 3′
1 – 0
1 – 1
39′ A. Martial
De Gea (OG) 82′
2 – 1

4. Stoke won  2-0

05/12/15 PRL Stoke City
2 – 0
Manchester City View events More info
M. Arnautović 7′
1 – 0
M. Arnautović 15′
2 – 0

5 West Brom Won  3-0

Mon 18/05/15 West Bromwich …
3 – 0
Chelsea View events More info
S. Berahino 9′
1 – 0
S. Berahino (PG) 47′
2 – 0
C. Brunt 60′
3 – 0

6  West Brom 2-2

Mon 20/10/14 PRL West Bromwich …
2 – 2
Manchester United
S. Sessègnon 8′
1 – 0
1 – 1
48′ M. Fellaini
S. Berahino 66′
2 – 1
2 – 2
87′ D. Blind

7 West Ham won  3-1

Sat 20/09/14 PRL West Ham United
3 – 1
Liverpool
W. Reid 2′
1 – 0
D. Sakho 7′
2 – 0
2 – 1
26′ R. Sterling
M. Amalfitano 88′
3 – 1

8 Cardiff lost (  3-6 )

Cardiff City
3 – 6
Liverpool
J. Mutch 9′
1 – 0
1 – 1
16′ L. Suárez
F. Campbell 25′
2 – 1
2 – 2
41′ M. Škrtel
2 – 3
54′ M. Škrtel
2 – 4
60′ L. Suárez
2 – 5
75′ D. Sturridge
J. Mutch 88′
3 – 5
3 – 6
90′ L. Suárez

9. Fulham lost (  2-3 )

Fulham
2 – 3
Liverpool
K. Touré (OG) 8′
1 – 0
1 – 1
41′ D. Sturridge
K. Richardson 63′
2 – 1
2 – 2
72′ Philippe Coutinho
2 – 3
90′ S. Gerrard (PG)

10. Hull lost (  2-3 )

Thu 26/12/13 Hull City
2 – 3
Manchester United
J. Chester 4′
1 – 0
D. Meyler 13′
2 – 0
2 – 1
19′ C. Smalling
2 – 2
26′ W. Rooney
2 – 3
66′ J. Chester (OG)

11. Sunderland lost  ( 1-2)

5/10/13 PRL Sunderland
1 – 2
Manchester United
C. Gardner 5′
1 – 0
1 – 1
61′ A. Januzaj
1 – 2
62′ A. Januzaj

12. Reading lost ( 3-4 )

Reading
3 – 4
Manchester United
H. Robson-Kanu 8′
1 – 0
1 – 1
13′ Anderson
1 – 2
16′ W. Rooney (PG)
A. Le Fondre 19′
2 – 2
S. Morrison 23′
3 – 2
3 – 3
30′ W. Rooney
3 – 4
34′ R. van Persie[

13. Bolton won  3-1

Bolton Wanderers
3 – 1
Liverpool
M. Davies 4′
1 – 0
N. Reo-Coker 29′
2 – 0
2 – 1
37′ C. Bellamy
G. Steinsson 50′
3 – 1

14. QPR won  1-0

Queens Park Ra…
1 – 0
Chelsea
H. Helguson (PG) 10′
1 – 0

15. Stoke (  1-1

Stoke City
1 – 1
Chelsea
J. Walters 8′
1 – 0
1 – 1
33′ D. Drogba

16 Blackpool  2-2

Blackpool
2 – 2
Everton
N. Eardley 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
13′ T. Cahill
D. Vaughan 48′
2 – 1
2 – 2
50′ S. Coleman

17 Bolton  2-2

Bolton Wanderers
2 – 2
Manchester United
Z. Knight 5′
1 – 0
1 – 1
23′ Nani
M. Petrov 67′
2 – 1
2 – 2
74′ M. Owen