Birmingham City V Preston In Play Review Via the early away goal Metric in the Championship

Posted on: September 28th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

I discovered yesterday that I am human as I backed Preston at half time at 1.76 thinking I had made a great value bet .

Unfortunately , a quick scan of the game pathway made me believe that the game went > 0-2 pathway and > 1-2 pathway when the pathway was > 1-1 > 1-2 .

at 1-1 the prices offered were  13/10 7/4 11/4 with over 3.5 offered at 4/5 

Last  season in the Championship in games where the away teams opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band, 63% ended over 2.5 goals and 36% ended over 3.5 goals

Both teams scored in 73% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 59%

The home teams won 16%, 24% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 60%

 

37%  produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes

 

GAME PATHWAY

0-1 FT <>  7/94 

> 1-1  53/94       56% <>  12-23-18 <> away teams won  34%

> 0-2  34/94      36%  3-0-31 <> away teams won  91%

 

I was thinking at half time that I was sitting on a great bet ( backed Preston ) but if you look at the > 1-1 pathway you would have put a price on Preston at around  2/1 so my perceived value bet was a rubbish bet ( I was thinking that high expectation of an away win as I thought I was looking at > 0-2 pathway with a very high % of away wins .

 

Preston away in the Championship when opening the scoring 0-20 minutes ;

2-2 1-2 1-1 1-1 0-3 2-1 2-2 2-2 1-1 4-6 3-1 1-1 5-3 1-2 1-1 0-3 2-2 2-1 1-2 2-1 

18/20 BTTS YES ,  Preston won 30% <> A eureka moment ???? when you look at conceding data you will find that a high % of games where there is a fightback ( retrieval ) will have a common factor which will be an early goal metric  and as a result you will see in general  that the early away goal metric will produce a high both teams scoring YES % season on season in many leagues around the globe.

Birmingham at home in the Championship when conceding the opening goal 0-20 minutes 

2-2 1-2 0-2 0-2 2-1 2-2 0-4 0-8 0-1 0-1 2-4 2-4 0-2 1-2 0-2 1-2 0-1 2-3 3-2 2-3 0-1 1-1 1-1 1-3 3-2 <> 3-4-18 <> Birmingham lost 72% with 60% over 2.5 goals and 44% ( 13/10 )  over 3.5 goals 

 

Championship <> in games where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes > 1-1 > 1-2 HT > FT >

2-2 1-4  1-2 2-2 1-2 2-4 3-3 2-3 2-3 1-5 1-3 <> since 2012-2013 <>  0-3-8 <> away teams won 73%, with 55% over 4.5 goals 

 

Summary 

If you have  the ability to use PYTHON and you have a good analytical brain then it is likely that you have automated your in play betting to avoid the human errors .