Arsenal V Swansea Preview Via Conceding Data ( Survival Analysis )

Posted on: October 10th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

Arsenal last 31 games  at home in the Premier League when conceding the opening goal 11-7-13 <> Arsenal lost 42%  and are ranked Second at home in the Premier League ( Chelsea Top ) in terms of conceding the opening goal at home re expectation of fighting back.

Arsenal since 2003-2004 in the Premier League at home have conceded the opening goal in the 0-20 minutes time band in 23 games and only lost 3/23 (13%) and in general we can see that when Arsenal concede the early goal metric at home ( opening goal 0-20 minutes ) that there will be expectation that Arsenal will “fightback’ and we see that Arsenal scored in 100% of the games.

 

Arsenal at home in the Premier League have  opened  the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band since 2008-2009 in 24 games > 19-3-2 <> Both teams scored in 50% , 67% ended over 2.5 goals , 50% ended over 3.5 goals  and 62.5% ended over 1.5 goals in the first half .

 

Swansea last 31 away in the PL when conceding the opening goal

4-5-22  Swansea lost 71%

Swansea last 14 away in the PL when opening the scoring 0-20 minutes

7-3-4  Swansea won 50% , BTTS YES 71% , 64% over 2.5 goals , 36% over 3.5 goals and 50% over 1.5 goals in the first half 

Swansea away in the PL when conceding the opening goal in the 0-10 minutes time band

4-0 3-2 4-3 1-1 3-0 3-1