Arsenal V Chelsea Preview Via Conceding Data ( Survival Analysis )

Posted on: September 22nd, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

Arsenal last 31 games  at home in the Premier League when conceding the opening goal 11-7-13 <> Arsenal lost 42%  and are ranked Second at home in the Premier League ( Chelsea Top ) in terms of conceding the opening goal at home re expectation of fighting back.

Arsenal since 2003-2004 in the Premier League at home have conceded the opening goal in the 0-20 minutes time band in 23 games and only lost 3/23 (13%) and in general we can see that when Arsenal concede the early goal metric at home ( opening goal 0-20 minutes ) that there will be expectation that Arsenal will “fightback’ and we see that Arsenal scored in 100% of the games.

 

 

T HT FT Goal 80 +
Arsenal Southampton 18 11 2 1 90
Arsenal Man City 18 0 1 1 1
Arsenal Swansea 11 0 1 2 2 90
Arsenal Liverpool 5 0 1 2 2
Arsenal West Ham 18 1 1 5 1
Arsenal Spurs 10 3 1 5 2 90
Arsenal Chelsea 20 1 1 1 2
Arsenal Wigan 7 1 2 1 2
Arsenal Newcastle 14 1 1 2 1 90
Arsenal Spurs 4 2 2 5 2
Arsenal Villa 11 0 2 1 2 90
Arsenal Bolton 7 1 2 4 2 85
Arsenal Everton 12 1 1 2 2 81 90
Arsenal Blackburn 4 3 2 6 2 89
Arsenal Spurs 13 1 1 4 4 89 90
Arsenal Everton 9 0 1 3 1 90
Arsenal Fulham 1 0 1 2 1 83 90
Arsenal Bolton 10 1 1 2 1
Arsenal Blackburn 3 3 1 6 2 85 88 90
Arsenal Bolton 12 0 1 1 1 90
Arsenal Villa 3 2 1 3 1
Arsenal Liverpool 5 1 2 4 2
Arsenal Spurs 5 0 1 2 1

 

 

Arsenal at home in the Premier League have  opened  the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band since 2008-2009 in 24 games > 19-3-2 <> Both teams scored in 50% , 67% ended over 2.5 goals , 50% ended over 3.5 goals 

 

Chelsea away in the Premier League in their last 30 games when conceding the opening goal > 9-3-18 <> Chelsea lost 60%

In the table below I have added all the games since 2003-2004 where Chelsea conceded the opening goal away in the league in the 0-10 minutes time band and 68% ended over 2.5 goals 

Chelsea  won 27%, 23% ended a draw and they lost 50%

Both teams scored in 73%

 

Chelsea last 35 away games in the Premier League when opening the scoring 0-20 , Chelsea Won 74%, Both teams scored in 77%, 83% ended over 2.5 goals , 54% ended over 3.5 goals and 54% ended over 1.5 goals in the first half

 

 

T HT FT
WBA Chelsea 9 1 0 3 0
Liverpool Chelsea 9 1 1 1 2
Everton Chelsea 2 1 1 1 2
WBA Chelsea 10 1 1 2 1
Everton Chelsea 5 1 0 2 0
Spurs Chelsea 8 1 1 1 1
QPR Chelsea 10 1 0 1 0
Man UTD Chelsea 8 3 0 3 1
Man UTD Chelsea 1 2 0 2 1
Stoke Chelsea 8 1 1 1 1
Sunderland Chelsea 4 2 2 2 4
Wolves Chelsea 5 1 0 1 0
Newcastle Chelsea 6 1 1 1 1
Fulham Chelsea 10 1 0 2 2
Fulham Chelsea 10 1 0 1 2
Liverpool Chelsea 3 2 0 4 1
Boro Chelsea 2 2 0 3 1
Man UTD Chelsea 7 1 1 2 1
Arsenal Chelsea 2 2 1 1 1
Blackburn Chelsea 3 1 2 0 1
Charlton Chelsea 1 2 1 1 1
Arsenal Chelsea 5 1 1 2 1

 

 

Summary 

If you are betting in play in the game then assuming the game does not end 0-0 , note the time of the opening goal in terms of the ability of a team to hold onto the advantage which is known as survival analysis < google for further information ” survival analysis ”