Arsenal Conceding the Opening Goal at Home in the Premier League

Posted on: August 31st, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

In the table below I have added the last 30 games in the Premier League where Arsenal conceded the opening goal at home  and the key is to understand how the time of the opening goal will effect expectation of a team fighting back.

Arsenal won 33%, 24% ended a draw and they lost 43%

if we look at games in the Premier League where Arsenal conceded the opening at home in the 0-20 time band since 2003-204 , Arsenal won 59%, 27% ended a draw and they lost 14%

http://www.sotdoc.co.uk/arsenal-conceding-the-opening-goal-at-home-in-the-premier-league-since-2003-2004-in-the-0-20-minutes-time-band/

 

Summary

If you are looking at Conceding data in terms of expectation of a team fighting back , it is important to look at the time of the opening goal because expectation of further goal(s) production is dependent on the time of the opening goal  and the game state ( current score ) added to any variables that may occur as time decays in the game .

Arsenal when conceding the opening goal 0-20 minutes at home  will result in much higher expectation of a fightback then when they concede the opening goal 21 + minutes

 

 

 

T HT FT Goal 80 +
Arsenal Leicester 45 0 1 2 1 90
Arsenal Chelsea 23 0 1 0 1
Arsenal Spurs 32 0 1 1 1
Arsenal WHU 43 0 1 0 2
Arsenal Swansea 85 0 0 0 1 85
Arsenal Man UTD 56 0 0 1 2 85 90
Arsenal Spurs 56 0 0 1 1
Arsenal Man City 28 0 1 2 2 83
Arsenal Palace 35 1 1 2 1 90
Arsenal WHU 40 1 1 3 1
Arsenal Man City 18 0 1 1 1
Arsenal Swansea 11 0 1 2 2 90
Arsenal Norwich 56 0 0 3 1 85 88 90
Arsenal Liverpool 5 0 1 2 2
Arsenal WHU 18 1 1 5 1
Arsenal Man City 21 0 2 0 2
Arsenal Swansea 88 0 0 0 2 88 90
Arsenal Spurs 10 3 1 5 2 90
Arsenal Chelsea 20 1 1 1 2
Arsenal Wigan 7 1 2 1 2
Arsenal Newcastle 14 1 1 2 1 90
Arsenal Spurs 4 2 2 5 2
Arsenal Man UTD 45 0 1 1 2 81
Arsenal Fulham 66 0 0 1 1
Arsenal Liverpool 78 0 0 0 2 90
Arsenal Villa 11 0 2 1 2 90
Arsenal Everton 24 0 1 2 1
Arsenal Newcastle 45 0 1 0 1
Arsenal Birmingham 33 1 1 2 1
Arsenal WBA 50 0 0 2 3 90