Arsenal Conceding the Opening Goal at Home in the Premier League since 2003-2004 in the 0-20 minutes time band

Posted on: January 31st, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark

Arsenal since 2003-2004 in the Premier League at home have conceded the opening goal in the 0-20 minutes time band in 24 games and only lost 4/24 (17%) and in general we can see that when Arsenal concede the early goal metric at home ( opening goal 0-20 minutes ) that there will be expectation that Arsenal will “fightback’ and we see that Arsenal scored in 100% of the games.

Arsenal scored the 2nd goal of the game in 18/24 ( 75% ) and when they scored the 2nd goal of the game only Chelsea won.

Watford scored the second goal of the game and were offered at 11/10 to win and you should have looked at a sample of games where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes in the Premier League > 0-2 pathway because the home team fighting back is not common and last season in that profile in the PL 28/63 games that produced the opening goal by the away team in the 0-20 minutes tome band > 0-2 <> 1-3-24 away teams won 86% and we can see that Watford at 0-2 should have been offered at a shorter price because at 2-0 lead is not ” precarious ”

T HT FT Goal 80 +
Arsenal Watford 10 0 2 1 2
Arsenal Southampton 18 1 1 2 1 90
Arsenal Man City 18 0 1 1 1
Arsenal Swansea 11 0 1 2 2 90
Arsenal Liverpool 5 0 1 2 2
Arsenal West Ham 18 1 1 5 1
Arsenal Spurs 10 3 1 5 2 90
Arsenal Chelsea 20 1 1 1 2
Arsenal Wigan 7 1 2 1 2
Arsenal Newcastle 14 1 1 2 1 90
Arsenal Spurs 4 2 2 5 2
Arsenal Villa 11 0 2 1 2 90
Arsenal Bolton 7 1 2 4 2 85
Arsenal Everton 12 1 1 2 2 81 90
Arsenal Blackburn 4 3 2 6 2 89
Arsenal Spurs 13 1 1 4 4 89 90
Arsenal Everton 9 0 1 3 1 90
Arsenal Fulham 1 0 1 2 1 83 90
Arsenal Bolton 10 1 1 2 1
Arsenal Blackburn 3 3 1 6 2 85 88 90
Arsenal Bolton 12 0 1 1 1 90
Arsenal Villa 3 2 1 3 1
Arsenal Liverpool 5 1 2 4 2
Arsenal Spurs 5 0 1 2 1

In the table below I have added the last 30 games in the Premier League where the away team opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-20 minutes time band and 0-2 half time game state ;

2-1-27 <> away teams won 90% 1/0.90 = 1.11 ( at HT watford were offered at 1.63)

The home teams in the second half failed to score in the second half in 50%

The away teams failed to score in the second half in 47% and scored over 3.5 goals in only 17% , 1/0.17 = 5/1

T HT FT
Bourne Liverpool 20 0 2 4 3
WBA Man City 19 0 2 0 4
Chelsea Liverpool 17 0 2 1 2
Sunderland Boro 13 0 2 1 2
Southampton Liverpool 17 0 2 3 2
Everton Arsenal 7 0 2 0 2
Stoke South 11 0 2 1 2
Villa Everton 5 0 2 1 3
Norwich Chelsea 1 0 2 1 2
Villa Liverpool 16 0 2 0 6
Norwich Spurs 2 0 2 0 3
Villa Arsenal 8 0 2 0 2
Swansea Leicester 5 0 2 0 3
Everton Man UTD 18 0 2 0 3
Newcastle Watford 10 0 2 1 2
Liverpool West Ham 3 0 2 0 3
WHU Bourne 11 0 2 3 4
WBA City 9 0 2 0 3
Palace Arsenal 8 0 2 1 2
Sunderland QPR 17 0 2 0 2
WBA Spurs 6 0 2 0 3
Spurs Stoke 6 0 2 1 2
WBA Palace 16 0 2 2 2
Sunderland Swansea 7 0 2 1 3
Palace Man City 4 0 2 0 2
Norwich Liverpool 4 0 2 2 3
WHU Man UTD 8 0 2 0 2
Hull Newcastle 10 0 2 1 4
Cardiff Hull 18 0 2 0 4
Newcastle Sunderland 19 0 2 0 3