Arsenal Conceding the Opening Goal at Home in the Premier League since 2003-2004 in the 0-20 minutes time band

Posted on: September 11th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

Why should you note the time of the opening goal in games ?

Expectation of a goal is dependent on the time of the opening goal added to the current score ( game state ) in terms of the effect on accuracy so when Southampton opened the scoring on 18 minutes , what was the expectation of Arsenal fighting back ( retrieving the one goal deficit ) ?

Arsenal since 2003-2004 in the Premier League at home have conceded the opening goal in the 0-20 minutes time band in 23 games and only lost 3/23 (13%) and in general we can see that when Arsenal concede the early goal metric at home ( opening goal 0-20 minutes ) that there will be expectation that Arsenal will “fightback’ and we see that Arsenal scored in 100% of the games.

When Southampton opened the scoring on 18 minutes , the offer on Southampton to win was 11/8 and we can see that was not perceived value because in the 23 games in the table below , Arsenal scored the 2nd goal of the game in 18/23 ( 78% ) and when they scored the 2nd goal of the game only Chelsea won.

Summary

If you are looking at conceding data then to paint a more comprehensive picture make sure you have factored in the time of the opening goal and the effect on accuracy as time decays in the game .

 

 

T HT FT Goal 80 +
Arsenal Southampton 18 11 2 1 90
Arsenal Man City 18 0 1 1 1
Arsenal Swansea 11 0 1 2 2 90
Arsenal Liverpool 5 0 1 2 2
Arsenal West Ham 18 1 1 5 1
Arsenal Spurs 10 3 1 5 2 90
Arsenal Chelsea 20 1 1 1 2
Arsenal Wigan 7 1 2 1 2
Arsenal Newcastle 14 1 1 2 1 90
Arsenal Spurs 4 2 2 5 2
Arsenal Villa 11 0 2 1 2 90
Arsenal Bolton 7 1 2 4 2 85
Arsenal Everton 12 1 1 2 2 81 90
Arsenal Blackburn 4 3 2 6 2 89
Arsenal Spurs 13 1 1 4 4 89 90
Arsenal Everton 9 0 1 3 1 90
Arsenal Fulham 1 0 1 2 1 83 90
Arsenal Bolton 10 1 1 2 1
Arsenal Blackburn 3 3 1 6 2 85 88 90
Arsenal Bolton 12 0 1 1 1 90
Arsenal Villa 3 2 1 3 1
Arsenal Liverpool 5 1 2 4 2
Arsenal Spurs 5 0 1 2 1