Are Liverpool FC the Worst Bet this Weekend?
When Liverpool FC kick off this weekend the clock will be striking eleven on a warm and sticky Saturday evening in the jam packed bars and drinking establishments in the Far East. The popularity of the Merseyside giant in far flung places such as China, Indonesia and Malaysia has helped establish them as one of the pre-eminent sports franchises in the world. This popularity though has also helped to make Liverpool, in certain spots, one of the worst football bets you could ever make.
I only say certain spots as they often, like last weekend away to Chelsea they are good value. However, games like they have this weekend where there is minimal support in the betting markets for their opposition is where you should look to oppose them. Money will come in for Liverpool from all over the world for this game but their huge popularity in the gambling loving Far East economy always keeps their price artificially low.
This weekend they entertain Hull at Anfield and are currently a best priced 1.25 to take victory over the visitors who despite a decent start to the season are predicted to battle against relegation. This is one of those aforementioned spots that trends tell you Liverpool are not good value in.
During the past five seasons there have been twenty seven games where Liverpool have been priced at 1.40 or below on home soil and their record reads P27 W17 D5 L5 which is not overly inspiring going into this fixture. If we narrow the criteria down even further to games where they are perceived to be even stronger favourites where they are priced 1.33 or below and their record improves to P15 W11 D3 L1. Sadly though for Liverpool backers the margin of victory in these games is rarely sufficient to justify taking the bet.
Only six of those eleven victories were by more than one goal and given the outright market price being 1.33 or lower you would be forced to back Liverpool at a price of -1.5 or worse. On the Asian Handicap line you would have gone 6-9 if you were able to obtain Liverpool at a constant -1.5 for those matches. If you think fifteen games is not a large enough sample size to draw definitive conclusions then let us expand our analysis back out to include those matches where they were priced at 1.40 or shorter. In those seventeen victories they won nine games by a solitary goal so only eight games out of twenty seven were won by two or more goals which is a very poor return for such a strong favourite.
Many of you will be sat here thinking yes but that is all history and this is the new Liverpool with Jurgen Klopp at the helm. His high paced attacking brand of football has taken the Premiership by storm and at times I agree it is breath taking to watch but let’s just pump the brakes a little. The data I have spoken of above includes all of those games under Brendan Rodgers with the threat of Sterling, Sturridge and Suarez in a side playing some of the most fluid attacking football I have ever seen. That is the beauty of betting by numbers rather than betting with your eyes as teams may evolve and change in terms of personnel but they often retain similar characteristics and traits.
Stats geeks and number lovers will be all over Hull this weekend +1.75 and I think I will be one of them until this Liverpool team prove to me that they have changed.