Analysis of ” Game Pathway ” : The Effect of the Early Home Goal and 1-0 Half Time in the Premier League

Posted on: May 11th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

“In this masterwork Pullein explains how you can work out what is likely to happen …. Kevin Pullein is the leading football commentator for the Racing Post. … for instance, a team which is losing by 0-1 is 6% more likely to score the next goal …”

In the table below I have added all the games since 2012-2013 in the Premier League where the home teams were winning 1-0 at half time  with the opening goal in the 0-10 minutes time band, the home teams scored the second goal of the game in 53%, no second goal in 15% and the away teams scored the second goal in 32%

Game Pathway 

Game pathway is simply the current score and in games in the Premier League that are 1-0 at half time to the home team added to the early home goal metric ( goal in the 0-10 minutes time band ) , expectation that the game will not go to the 1-1 pathway with a goal in the 46-70 minutes time band and if that does happen then high expectation that the game will not end 1-1.

In the table below 11 games (23% ) followed the pathway 1-1 with a goal in the 46-70 minutes time band and 0% of the 10 games ended 1-1.

Trading Strategy

In games in the Premier League that are 1-0 at half time to the home team added to the opening goal in the 0-10 minutes time band ;

1. At half time LAY ( Back against 1-1 correct score )

2. If the game is still 1-0 on 69 minutes then close the trade by backing 1-1 with the aim of avoiding any late goals by the away team.

If you followed the above strategy in the Premier League since 2012-2013 then you would have lost 0% of the trades which is not too shabby.

79% of the games in the table below ended a home win , 15% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 6% and 53% ended OVER 2.5 goals

 

 

 

T HT FT T+1
West Ham Man UTD 10 1 0 3 2 A51
Man UTD Palace 4 1 0 2 0
West Ham Spurs 7 1 0 1 0
Southampton WHU 9 1 0 1 0
Bournemouth Norwich 10 1 0 3 0
WHU Liverpool 10 1 0 2 0
Swansea WBA 9 1 0 1 0
Liverpool Villa 2 1 0 3 2 H59
WHU Newcastle 9 1 0 2 0
Swansea Newcastle 9 1 0 2 0
WBA Chelsea 9 1 0 3 0
Man City Villa 3 1 0 3 2 H66
Liverpool Newcastle 9 1 0 2 0
WHU Stoke 7 1 0 1 1 A90
WBA Southamp. 2 1 0 1 0
Arsenal Villa 8 1 0 5 0
Chelsea Hull 7 1 0 2 0
Hull Spurs 8 1 0 1 2 A61
WBA Man UTD 8 1 0 2 2 A48
West Ham QPR 5 1 0 2 0
Chelsea Villa 7 1 0 3 0
Man City Sunderland 2 1 0 2 2 A73
Southampton Norwich 5 1 0 4 2 H57
Swansea WBA 2 1 0 1 2 A52
Man UTD Cardiff 6 1 0 2 0
Everton Southampton 9 1 0 2 1 A71
Cardiff Sunderland 6 1 0 2 2 H58
Palace Cardiff 6 1 0 2 0
Arsenal Hull 2 1 0 2 0
City Swansea 8 1 0 3 0
Sunderland Newcastle 5 1 0 2 1 A57
Sunderland Man UTD 5 1 0 1 2 A61
Liverpool Man UTD 4 1 0 1 0
Palace Sunderland 9 1 0 3 1 A64
Everton West Ham 6 1 0 2 0
Arsenal Villa 6 1 0 2 1 A68
Fulham West Ham 10 1 0 3 1 A48
Man City Fulham 2 1 0 2 0
Reading West Ham 5 1 0 1 0
Man UTD West Brom 9 1 0 2 0
Fulham Southampton 8 1 0 1 1 A85
Man UTD West Ham 1 1 0 1 0
Fulham Everton 7 1 0 2 2 A55
Man UTD Arsenal 3 1 0 2 1 H67
Wigan West Ham 8 1 0 2 1 H47
Southampton Fulham 4 1 0 2 2 A70
Man City Sunderland 5 1 0 3 0