Analysis of ” Game Pathway ” in a game of Football : The Effect of the Early Home Goal and 1-0 Half Time in the Premier League : Man UTD V Crystal Palace
“In this masterwork Pullein explains how you can work out what is likely to happen …. Kevin Pullein is the leading football commentator for the Racing Post. … for instance, a team which is losing by 0-1 is 6% more likely to score the next goal …”
If you look at the Premier League in games where the home team open the scoring 0-10 minutes and 1-0 Half time , the pathway 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 minute time band is not common but if it does happen then 1-1 full time will be a rare event .
In the table below I have added the last 17 games where Manchester United opened the scoring at home in the league in the 0-10 minutes time band and the half time game state was 1-0 , and 2/17 ( 12% ) followed the pathway to 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 minutes time band .
76% ended under 2.5 goals.
|Man UTD||Palace||4||1 0||H54||2 0|
|Man UTD||Cardiff||6||1 0||H59||2 0|
|Man UTD||WBA||9||1 0||H90||2 0|
|Man UTD||WHU||1||1 0||1 0|
|Man UTD||Arsenal||3||1 0||H67||2 1|
|Man UTD||Sunderland||5||1 0||H57||2 0|
|Man UTD||Hull||8||1 0||H82||4 0|
|Man UTD||Portsmouth||9||1 0||H82||2 0|
|Man UTD||Wigan||1||1 0||1 0|
|Man UTD||Fulham||10||1 0||H58||2 0|
|Man UTD||Sheff UTD||4||1 0||H50||2 0|
|Man UTD||Spurs||9||1 0||1 0|
|Man UTD||Spurs||7||1 0||A72||1 1|
|Man UTD||Portsmouth||8||1 0||A47||2 1|
|Man UTD||Villa||8||1 0||A53||3 1|
|Man UTD||Bolton||10||1 0||H89||2 0|
|Man UTD||Wolves||10||1 0||1 0|