Analysis of ” Game Pathway ” in a game of Football : The Effect of the Early Home Goal and 1-0 Half Time in the Premier League : Man UTD V Crystal Palace

Posted on: April 21st, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

“In this masterwork Pullein explains how you can work out what is likely to happen …. Kevin Pullein is the leading football commentator for the Racing Post. … for instance, a team which is losing by 0-1 is 6% more likely to score the next goal …”

If you look at the Premier League in games where the home team open the scoring 0-10 minutes and 1-0 Half time , the pathway 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 minute time band is not common but if it does happen then 1-1 full time will be a rare event .

http://www.sotdoc.co.uk/analysis-of-game-pathway-in-a-game-of-football-the-effect-of-the-early-home-goal-and-1-0-half-time-in-the-premier-league/

In the table below I have added the last 17 games where Manchester United opened the scoring at home in the league in the 0-10 minutes time band and the half time game state was 1-0 , and 2/17 ( 12% ) followed the pathway to 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 minutes time band .

76% ended under 2.5 goals.

 

 

T HT T+1 FT
Man UTD Palace 4 1 0 H54 2 0
Man UTD Cardiff 6 1 0 H59 2 0
Man UTD WBA 9 1 0 H90 2 0
Man UTD WHU 1 1 0 1 0
Man UTD Arsenal 3 1 0 H67 2 1
Man UTD Sunderland 5 1 0 H57 2 0
Man UTD Hull 8 1 0 H82 4 0
Man UTD Portsmouth 9 1 0 H82 2 0
Man UTD Wigan 1 1 0 1 0
Man UTD Fulham 10 1 0 H58 2 0
Man UTD Sheff UTD 4 1 0 H50 2 0
Man UTD Spurs 9 1 0 1 0
Man UTD Spurs 7 1 0 A72 1 1
Man UTD Portsmouth 8 1 0 A47 2 1
Man UTD Villa 8 1 0 A53 3 1
Man UTD Bolton 10 1 0 H89 2 0
Man UTD Wolves 10 1 0 1 0