Analysis of 1-1 Full Time in the Premier League
You will often hear commentators claim that teams are more vulnerable to conceding a goal just after they have scored themselves. True or false?
Peter Ayton and Anna Braennberg tested the validity of this belief. They did so by considering matches across two seasons in the English Premier League that ended in 1-1 draws (this, they reasoned, shows that ‘each team was capable of scoring against the other’). There were 127 such instances during the 1994-95 and 1995-96 campaigns. (Myths and Facts about Football: The Economics and Psychology of the World’s Greatest Sport (2008). )
In the table below I have added the last 62 games in the Premier League which ended 1-1 full time and 26% produced a response ( T+1 ) up to 10 minutes after the opening goal and it would be easy to conclude that a team that open the scoring are not vulnerable to a quick response in general if you do not understand that it is in general the early goal games around the globe that will produce the highest percentage of quick responses ( fightbacks )
Since last season in the Premier League in games that ended 1-1 full time , the home team opened the scoring in 50% and the away teams opened the scoring in 50% and i would think it would be acceptable to argue that in games that end 1-1 in the Premier League , there will be no home or away bias .
In the table below the away teams opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band in 14.5% and it is known that the early away goal metric in the Premier League will result in expectation of acceleration of goal production in general so it would be acceptable to conclude that a low percentage of early away goal games in the Premier League will end 1-1 .
It is also known in the Premier league that the opening goal by the home team in the 0-10 minutes time band and the 11-20 minutes time and expectation in general of acceleration of goal production and as a result in that profile we should see lowered expectation of a draw in the Premier League.
In the table below the home teams opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band in 3% and the home teams opened the scoring in the 11-20 minutes time band in 6%
It is also known that the opening goal by the away team 75+ minutes and lowered expectation of > 1-1 pathway with > 0-2 a far more likely outcome and if we look at the table below in the games where the away teams opened the scoring 75 minutes + we have a sample of 4 games ( 7% ) and in each game the fightback ( > 1-1 ) would have been a surprise .
Sample size is the biggest red herring in football data and analytics and your focus should be on the content of your sample .
1. If you are going to look to establish if teams are vulnerable or not after scoring to a quick response then I would advise not looking exclusively at a 1-1 full time sample for the simple reason that you will exclude a high number of early goal games where there is more likely to be a quick response .
2. The reason why there is a high percentage of games that end a draw in football is not because of expectation of a “ fightback ” but because in general there is low goal production in football games around the globe with the caveat that an early goal could result in acceleration of goal production .
If you are looking to build an in play betting / trading model around the DRAW then I would advise you to look at individual leagues around the globe to define how the time of the opening goal will effect goal(s) production as time decays .