Alan Pardew Confirmed as next England Manager
http://www.skysports.com/football/news/11706/10017474/alan-pardew-could-be-next-england-manager-says-john-dillon < 4/10/2015 During the 2013-2014 Season John Cross ( Daily Mirror Chief Football writer ) advised in a video that was uploaded to you tube ( been removed ) that he considered that Pardew was a worthy candidate for the role of Manager of England. http://www.socceronsunday.com/article/pardew-confirmed-next-england-manager/ Alan Pardew Confirmed As Next England Manager >
Pardew admits that he was shocked when he heard the news.
“I couldn’t Adam and Eve it,” he told Soccer on Sunday. “I knew the FA was taking a Butchers, but when the Dog and Bone rang and they said I’d got the Corn on the Cob? I thought it was Jason Puncheon ‘avin a Giraffe! But no, I’m over the Wooden Spoon.”
Posted on: March 14th, 2013
“People are discussing Newcastle at the moment and arguing that Pardew must be a good Manager as Newcastle came 5th last season and the position is irelevant but the data is not.”
“Newcastle and West Ham are statistically YO YO clubs and will over achieve and then revert back to their norm which in the case of both teams over the last few years has been relegation and a return to the EPL. Although West Ham currently sit 12th this season I would think they will struggle next season as should Sunderland and Fulham. ”
“In the table below I have added the 72 games where Newcastle conceded the first goal of the game when Pardew was manager and they won 6/72 8.33%, 13/72 18% ended a draw and they lost 53/72 73.6%”
Crystal Palace when Pardew was Manager when conceding the opening goal in the Premier League lost 68%
“It was around the time of the side’s astonishing 5-4 defeat at Swansea, administered by two Fernando Llorente goals at the death. Allardyce – whose attention to detail in job applications is always very impressive – despatched to them a detailed dossier. It included an analysis of the squad, with reference to their propensity for conceding late goals. It detailed his own managerial achievements in numbers and outlined what would be required in January. It was the significance he attached to data, as a key management tool, which was unexpected.”
“It was a meeting of minds. Allardyce was one of the trailblazers for the use of Pro-Zone more than a decade ago. The Americans’ conviction about the numbers has been reinforced by the success of Brighton & Hove Albion (currently second in the Championship) and RB Leipzig (second in the Bundesliga) who draw heavily on data.”
SOTDOC response > I believe that too many people are in football that do not have a background in football and that a focus on ” numbers” could turn out in the long run to have been the wrong pathway for a football club in terms of their development
Brentford for example are a club that removed a successful manager who did not want to embrace their football analytics and have struggled to turn their ” stats ” model into results on the pitch
“I know of Premier League clubs who get an SMS at half-time and full-time saying if they deserve to be winning or losing based on an expected goals model, which assigns each shot a probability of going in based on the location on the pitch and other factors. And there are clubs who use analytics to see whether their league position accurately reflects their performances on the pitch.”
Sotdoc response > Expected goal total data via the keying of the chance creation is a useful as a chocolate teapot during a game
Full Time Summary
Big Sam may be considered a better Manager then Pardew but I think the red herring is that one has embraced football data and the other has not shown interest in that area.
If we look at Crystal Palace when they conceded a goal(s) 80+ minutes when Pardew was Manager in games where they were either level on 79 minutes or + 1 goal >
1. Palace 1 Man UTD 2 < conceded a goal on 88 < 2nd half home fightback metric with expectation of the game ending over 2.5 goals 2. Swansea 5 Palace 4 < conceded 90 90 < early goal metric with expectation of the goal(s) 80 + 3. Palace 1 Man City 2 < conceded a goal on 83 < 2nd half home fightback metric with expectation of the game ending over 2.5 goals 4. Burnley 3 Palace 2 < conceded a goal on 90 < early goal metric with expectation of the goal(s) 80 + 5. Spurs 1 Palace 0 < conceded a goal on 82
6. Palace 1 Liverpool 2 < conceded a goal on 90
7. Sunderland 2 Palace 2 < conceded a goal on 90 < 2nd half fightback metric with expectation of further goal(s) 8. Palace 1 Watford 2 < conceded a goal on 82 < early goal metric with expectation of further goal(s) 9. Palace 1 Spurs 3 < conceded goals on 84 90 < 2nd half fightback metric with expectation of further goal(s) 10. Everton 1 Palace 1 < conceded a goal on 81
11. Palace 0 Sunderland 1 < conceded a goal on 80
12. Palace 1 WHU 3 < conceded goals on 88 90
13. Palace 0 Man City 1 < conceded a goal on 90
14. Southampton 1 Palace 0 < conceded a goal on 83
In the 14 games above is Big Sam inferring that his analytical team would have advised late in the games that Palace were vulnerable to allow for changes in strategy/players to repel the perceived danger?
footnote > I have 500 Pardew for England T-Shirts and 500 Big Sam for England T-Shirts for sale at 99p each < call me if you want one. http://www.sotdoc.co.uk/premier-league-shotsshots-on-target-and-accuracy-prevention-table-2015-2016-which-teams-are-likely-to-be-relegated/ < Posted on: November 10th, 2015 " Crystal Palace fans should be concerned for the future because they are bottom of the shots conceded table and this is an indication that they will struggle in future seasons to maintain their Premier League status."