No better moment for a goal than just before half-time in the Premier League ?

Posted on: February 6th, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark

“06-06-2016) Ghent University scientists contradict what is generally assumed: if a home team scores just before half-time, then it often scores less after half-time and ends up, averagely speaking, with a lower goal difference.

The football myth doesn’t survive the confrontation with the data. For a given score at half-time, a goal just before half-time does not have any statistically significant effect on the chances of winning.”

http://www.ugent.be/en/news-events/news/no-better-moment-for-a-goal-than-just-before-half-time-a-football-myth-debunked

The “ confrontation ” data

In the table below I have added all the games in the Premier League since 14-15 where the home team opened the scoring 40-HT ;

28-6-4 <> the home teams won 74%

Since 2008-2009 in the Premier League in games where the home team were winning 1-0 at half time and 75% ended a home win.

In the table below in games where the home team opened the scoring on 45 minutes > the home teams won 86%

T HT FT
Hull Liverpool 44 1 0 2 0
Chelsea Hull 45 1 0 2 0
Spurs Chelsea 45 1 0 2 0
Stoke Watford 45 1 0 2 0
WHU Burnley 45 1 0 1 0
Man City Chelsea 45 1 0 1 3
Arsenal Spurs 42 1 0 1 1
Man City Boro 43 1 0 1 1
Spurs Leicester 44 1 0 1 1
Leicester Palace 42 1 0 3 1
Leicester Burnley 45 1 0 3 0
Hull Leicester 45 1 0 2 1
Man UTD Bourne 43 1 0 3 0
South. Palace 43 1 0 4 1
Arsenal Palace 45 1 0 1 1
Newcastle Swansea 40 1 0 3 0
Norwich Newcastle 45 1 0 3 2
South. Chelsea 42 1 0 1 2
Villa Norwich 45 1 0 2 0
Leicester Stoke 42 1 0 3 0
Sunderland Newcastle 45 1 0 3 0
WBA Everton 41 1 0 2 3
Newcastle Chelsea 42 1 0 2 2
Man UTD Sunderland 45 1 0 3 0
South. Norwich 45 1 0 3 0
Chelsea Palace 45 1 0 1 0
Leicester Chelsea 45 1 0 1 3
Sunderland Newcastle 45 1 0 1 0
Man UTD Villa 43 1 0 3 1
Arsenal WHU 45 1 0 3 0
Man City Leicester 45 1 0 2 0
Chelsea Newcastle 43 1 0 2 0
Leicester Villa 45 1 0 1 0
Spurs Southampton 40 1 0 1 0
Liverpool WBA 45 1 0 2 1
QPR Sunderland 45 1 0 1 0
Man City Liverpool 41 1 0 3 1
Hull Stoke 42 1 0 1 1