Archive for May, 2014

Expected Goal Totals ( ExpG) Via Keying of the Chance Creation during a Game of Soccer

Posted on: May 31st, 2014 by Jonny Grossmark

Is it possible to build an in running Soccer model to predict with a high accuracy the expectation of the goal production during a game? Bolton v Wolverhampton Wanderers 31st December 2011 Heavy rain at times during the game which did not...

Football Trading Strategy : The affect of the early 2nd Half Fight Back Goal in the Premier League

Posted on: May 31st, 2014 by Jonny Grossmark

Stats.......     Expectation of a goal is dependent on the current score and the variables that will impede and accelerate goal production. In general in the Premier League there will be low expectation of acceleration of...

Football Trading Strategies : The Fight Back goal ( 1-1 ) in the Premier League

Posted on: May 30th, 2014 by Jonny Grossmark

If  you have built a football model which predicts the Expected goal totals ExpG as time decays in a game via the keying of the " chance creation "  then I think I can improve the model via analysis of the variables that...

Premier League Conceding the First Goal Data 2008-2009 – 2013-2014

Posted on: May 29th, 2014 by Jonny Grossmark

Below is a table showing Conceding the first goal of a game data in the Premier League for the seasons 2008-2009 to 2013-2014. ( excluding the three  teams that were promoted to the Premier League for the 2013-2014 season). We can see that Man...

Newcastle Conceding the First Goal Data under Alan Pardew

Posted on: May 29th, 2014 by Jonny Grossmark

  In the 58 League games where Newcastle  under Alan Pardew have conceded the first goal of the game they have won 4 drawn 9,  lost 45 ( 78% ) and scored the next goal of the game in 33%. Game State ( current score ) is a...

Goal Time Distribution: The Affect of the Early Away Goal In Bundesliga

Posted on: May 27th, 2014 by Jonny Grossmark

  Home wins: 47% Over 1.5 goals: 85% Draws: 21% Over 2.5 goals: 61% Away wins: 32% Over 3.5 goals: 39% Goals: 967 Goals p. match (Home): 1.75 Goals p. match: 3.16 Goals p. match...

Goal Time Distribution : The Affect of the Early Away Goal in La Liga

Posted on: May 27th, 2014 by Jonny Grossmark

  Home wins: 47% Over 1.5 goals: 72% Draws: 23% Over 2.5 goals: 53% Away wins: 30% Over 3.5 goals: 32% Goals: 1045 Goals p. match (Home): 1.63 Goals p. match: 2.75 Goals p. match...

Goal Time Distribution : The Affect of the Early Away Goal In Serie A

Posted on: May 27th, 2014 by Jonny Grossmark

  Home wins: 48% Over 1.5 goals: 76% Draws: 24% Over 2.5 goals: 49% Away wins: 29% Over 3.5 goals: 27% Goals: 1035 Goals p. match (Home): 1.54 Goals p. match: 2.72 Goals p. match (Away): 1.19 In...