Archive for April, 2014

Football Trading Strategy : Serie A Early Home Goal Data and Analysis 2012-2013

Posted on: April 30th, 2014 by Jonny Grossmark

In Serie A last season there was an average of 2.67 goals a game with 48.3% ending over 2.5 goals and 25.7% ending over 3.5 goals and 24% of games ended in a draw. Will the early home goal ( first goal of a game ) in Serie A  affect the...

In Play Betting Strategy : Sassuolo v Juventus Via the Early Home Goal in Serie A

Posted on: April 28th, 2014 by Jonny Grossmark

If the first goal in a Serie a game is scored in the first 10 minutes by the home team then wait till the 25th minute ( over 2.5 goals will be around 1.65) and trigger a bet of over 2.5 goals. This is a simple but highly affective strategy based...

Premier League 1-0 Half Time Table 2008/2009 – 2013/2014

Posted on: April 28th, 2014 by Jonny Grossmark

Half Time game state 1-0 to the home team will in general result in low expectation of the away team fighting back and winning even if they are the perceived stronger team. The simple reason is that at + 1 goal there will be expectation of the...

In Play Betting Review : Liverpool v Chelsea Via Game State Analysis

Posted on: April 28th, 2014 by Jonny Grossmark

What is Game State ? Game state is simply the current score in the game but can be a very powerful tool in terms of expectation of the accuracy of teams as time decays in a game. Liverpool 0 Chelsea 1 half time  In the Premier league last...

In Play Betting Review : Athletic Bilbao v Sevilla Via Half Time Game State and the Early Home Goal in La Liga

Posted on: April 27th, 2014 by Jonny Grossmark

Bilbao 1 Sevilla 0 Half Time ( goal 5 minutes ) In general 1-0 half time game state will result in low expectation of the away team winning the game. Last season in La Liga ( 1-0 half time ), the home teams  won 79%, 11% were drawn and the...

In Play Betting Review : Torino v Udinese Via the Early Home Goal in Serie A

Posted on: April 27th, 2014 by Jonny Grossmark

In Serie a the early home goal ( first goal of the game ) in general will accelerate goal production and as a result we should see a lower expectation of a draw given the expectation of goal(s) production as time decays in the games. In the 72...

In Play Betting Review : Hellas Verona v Catania Via the Early Home Goal In Serie A

Posted on: April 27th, 2014 by Jonny Grossmark

Hellas Verona open the scoring on 6 minutes with high expectation of acceleration of goals and the market maker must have been reading my essays as the over 2.5 goals on 25 minutes was 1.49 . If the first goal in a Serie a game is scored in...

In Play Betting Review : Rennes v Lorient Via Game State and the Early Away Goal

Posted on: April 27th, 2014 by Jonny Grossmark

Statement 1 Lorient have not lost any of their last 13 away league games when winning 1-0 at half time. Statement 2 Lorient have only won 6 of their last 13 away league games when winning 1-0 at half time. 0-1 half time and the early...