Archive for January, 2014

@SOTDraw Football Draw Picks ( Chap is on fire + 27.8 points this season to a 1 point fixed stake per game )

Posted on: January 31st, 2014 by Jonny Grossmark

SotDraw was on fire last weekend with three draws to bring the total profit to a £20 fixed stake per draw to £556 which is 27.8 points which is very impressive. Livorno v Sassuolo 3.70*0.22 v 4.40*0.24 = 0.81 v 1.06 odds 3.2 LOST Toulouse v...

France Ligue 1 Half Time ” Game State ” Goal 21-30 Minutes . Looking at the affect on Accuracy in the second half with Betting Strategy

Posted on: January 29th, 2014 by Jonny Grossmark

I must thank Paul  who is @SotDraw on Twitter for inspiring this essay. A Markov chain (discrete-time Markov chain or DTMC[1]) named after Andrey Markov, is a mathematical system that undergoes transitions from one state to another on...

Football Data Analytics : Looking at 1-0 Home Half Time “Game State ” around Europe . Who are the Winners away from Home this season ?

Posted on: January 29th, 2014 by Jonny Grossmark

In this essay I am going to show you that losing away 1-0 at half time in Europe and winning is like climbing Everest without an oxygen mask. If we look the Premier League, Scottish Premier League, Bundesliga 1+2, Serie A, La Liga. Ligue 1+ 2,...

A Review of Southampton v Arsenal Via 1-0 Half Time “Game State”

Posted on: January 28th, 2014 by Jonny Grossmark

I want to keep this essay as simple as possible as I am aware from reading comments on twitter that people think we should look at football games as a separate entity and in many ways they are correct but my aim is to show that at Half Time there...

Football Data Analytics : The Premier League Predictions 29th January Via a Predictive Model

Posted on: January 28th, 2014 by Jonny Grossmark

Aston Villa 0.24*4.45 1.07 goals West Brom 0.31*3.91 1.21 goals Expectation that Aston Villa will have 4/5 shots on target and West Brom 3/4 with Villa converting 24% of their shots on target and West Brom 31%. I cannot see any value in...

Liverpool v Everton A Preview Via Football Data Analytics

Posted on: January 27th, 2014 by Jonny Grossmark

Liverpool 0.31*5.64 1.75 goals Everton 0.27*3.68 0.99 goals There is expectation that Liverpool will have 5/6 shots on target and convert 31% of their shots on target and thee is expectation that Everton will have 3/4 shots on target and...

Football Data Analytics . The affect of “Game State” 1-0 Half Time in the Premier League on accuracy in the 2nd Half with Betting Strategy

Posted on: January 27th, 2014 by Jonny Grossmark

You are in the pub watching Sunderland v Manchester City and you have backed Manchester City to win and over 2.5 goals in the game at half time although Man City are losing 1-0 you feel there is hope of City winning so you get on your mobile phone...

Napoli v Chievo/Verona In Play Betting Analysis Via Football Data Analytics.

Posted on: January 26th, 2014 by Jonny Grossmark

At Half Time in the Napoli game Chiveo/Verona were winning 1-0 with a goal scored by Sardo on 18 minutes and the half time shot on target production to Napoli and Chievo/Verona was 1. The key question is does the fact that a game is 0-1 at half...