Archive for October, 2013

Updated early away goal data from the Top 5 European Leagues and a betting strategy

Posted on: October 31st, 2013 by Jonny Grossmark

There have been 78 Early Away goals (first goal 0-20 minutes ) in the top 5 leagues and Hertha Berlin remain the only team to be losing 1-0 at half time at home and win. It was Dixon (1998) who advised that the early away goal accelerates goal...

Serie A 0-0 half time shot on target analysis – Season 2013-2014

Posted on: October 31st, 2013 by Jonny Grossmark

There were 127 games in Seria A in the 2011-2012 season that ended 0-0 at Half Time and 30% were won by the home side and  42% were drawn and 28% were won by the away teams. Last season in Serie A there were 133 games that were 0-0 at Half Time...

A Betting Preview of Premier League games using the SotDoc Predictive football model

Posted on: October 31st, 2013 by Jonny Grossmark

Arsenal 0.29*5.81 1.68 goals  Liverpool 0.34*4.64 1.58 goals  Total goal production 3.26 Value over 2.5 goals at 1.73 +  Correct score 1-1 7.8+ Correct score 2-1 10.0 + Notes: Arsenal have won their last 5 home 1-0 half time games and in...

Updated Early Away goal data and analysis for the Top 5 Leagues

Posted on: October 28th, 2013 by Jonny Grossmark

If you backed Getafe to beat Bilbao then at half time there was little expectation of your bet winning simply because it is known that at 0-1 half time game state and an early away goal that expectation of home goal(s) are impeded and as a result...

Man UTD Shot on Target Production and Accuracy : Ferguson v Moyes

Posted on: October 28th, 2013 by Jonny Grossmark

In 1986 Sir Alex Ferguson became Manager of  Manchester United, and  I was at many of the games in 1986  where the chants were " Ferguson Out " and it was very lucky that we were not listened to. I have read many people saying that Man United...

Premier League Updated shots on Target Table including conceding data .

Posted on: October 28th, 2013 by Jonny Grossmark

Last week I advised; "In terms of terms reverting to the mean, I would expect Fulham, Cardiff, West Ham and Aston Villa to lower their accuracy as time decays in the season to around 0.3 and I would expect Spurs, Stoke and Southampton to improve...

The SotDoc World Tips Review for Goal Adviser Blog 3.

Posted on: October 27th, 2013 by Jonny Grossmark

After my first 2 blogs for Goal Adviser World Tips I was + 7.42 which is pretty impressive given that in general my bets are to a one point stake. This weekend has been a losing weekend with a loss of - 0.7 to bring the total after three  blogs...

Chelsea v Manchester City . A review of the effect of the fight back goal.

Posted on: October 27th, 2013 by Jonny Grossmark

Expectation of a goal is dependent on the current score and at 1-1 game state (after the fight back goal ) by the away side it is known that there will be expectation of further goal(s) If we look at the sample of  29 game below where the score...