Archive for April, 2013

Aston Villa v Sunderland I A review of the betting triggers.

Posted on: April 30th, 2013 by Jonny Grossmark

It was no surprise at Half Time when BET365 via their  in play with Ray bet stimulation tool advised people to back Sunderland at 12/1. If we look at the table below then we can see that this season in the EPL there were 11 games that were 2-1...

Chelsea v Swansea I Data triggers winning second half bets.

Posted on: April 29th, 2013 by Jonny Grossmark

This season before the weekend games there have been 21 English Premier League games that have been 2-0 to the Home side at Half Time and the home side won the second half  48% and have Drawn the second half 24% and lost 28% of the games in the...

Wigan v Spurs I A view from the shot strength data

Posted on: April 29th, 2013 by Jonny Grossmark

My predictive model for the Wigan v Spurs offered the data below; Wigan 0.36*3.84 1.38 goals Spurs 0.38*5.34 2.03 goals Total shots on target 9.18 I do not use goal expectation before a game to trigger a bet but prefer to look at a game...

Shot on Target Expectation April 27/28/29 English Premier League

Posted on: April 26th, 2013 by Jonny Grossmark

I have a built a predictive model to give an expectation of the total shots on target that each team will have in a game and the expected goal to shot on target ratio which then gives the total goal expectation for each team. Football predictive...

Watford v Blackburn I Shot Strength Review I Blackburn wings are clipped.

Posted on: April 23rd, 2013 by Jonny Grossmark

If you want to keep an eye on games in the championship  then you could pay for a service that has someone in all the grounds   relaying back the shot on target data or you could opt for the more primitive but cheaper option of reading the...

Stuttgart V Freiburg I Shot Strength data I Full Time 2-1

Posted on: April 22nd, 2013 by Jonny Grossmark

Many people who are interested in predictive models to derive goal expectation before a game starts may have had an interest in Under 2.5 goals at 2.17 in the Stuttgart v Freiburg game in the belief that they were getting value as the probability of...

Early away goal data in the English Premier League.

Posted on: April 21st, 2013 by Jonny Grossmark

  Dixon(1998) is  known for his research on  the effect of an early away goal, which has been recently been re-examined by Nevo and Ritov (2012). Nevo and Ritov examined the effect of the first goal on the second goal using survival...

Sunderland v Everton I An analysis of Half Time 1-0 data

Posted on: April 21st, 2013 by Jonny Grossmark

If you follow shots on target then you may use a site such as flashscores and if you open up the live centre for the Sunderland game and click on statistics then you will see that Sunderland had 5 shots on target and Everton had 2. The problem is...